NBA Predictions: How will the Utah Jazz do in the playoffs?

History of 3-seeds

From the past 20 seasons (since 1999-2000), there were 40 teams that were 3-seeds in their respective conferences. There’s one caveat with this study, as some of these 3-seeds didn’t have a good win-loss record. Before 2015-16 the NBA used to guarantee a top four seed to the division winners when seeding for the playoffs.

Now that we are all mindful of that, here are some stats for how well the 3-seeds have performed the past 20 years:

• 77.5% made it to the second round
• 35% advanced to the Conference Finals
• 12.5% were able to make an appearance in the Finals.
• 10% won the championship.

Here we see league-wide, the most common outcome was being eliminated in the second round. The occasional upset happens where the 3-seed takes a first round exit, and there is a real chance that could happen to the Jazz this year.

Let’s take a magnified look at how 3-seeds have performed specifically in the Western Conference:

• 80% made it to the second round
• 45% advanced to the Western Conference Finals.
• Three teams made it to the Finals (15%), and all three won the championship that year

The most likely outcome for the 3-seeded teams is to make a run to the second round and be eliminated there. The select few that were able to do better than that were either led by a superstar or two, or they got lucky (from being in the Eastern Conference, getting good playoff matchups, etc)

The only exception would be the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons. That Pistons team stands out as the only team in the past 20 years to win about 55 games, earn the 3 seed, and win a title without any stars.

Is it really fair to expect the Jazz to replicate a team from last decade that played in the Eastern Conference? Not really. The bottom line is you need big stars to win big in this league, it’s been that way for decades. What makes us think 2019-20 will be any different?