Utah Jazz: How impactful is regular season seeding come playoff time?

Despite a common narrative that seeding and regular season records aren’t all that important, the Utah Jazz need to prioritize pursuing a top seed in the West.

With so much talk about load management, resting players, and simply putting the most healthy team on the floor as possible come playoff time, there’s no question that there’s a common narrative that has very much arisen in the NBA. Namely, that regular season games hardly matter and that end-of-season seeding isn’t all that important. So long as you’re in the top-8 in the conference when the ‘real’ season (a.k.a. playoffs) begins, you have a chance to win it all.

In all fairness, this notion is true to some extent. Once the postseason starts, every team starts anew with an 0-0 record. The first to win 16 games, without allowing any other team to beat them four times first, will be the one that hoists the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of the day. It’s as simple as that.

We’ve even seen some teams in recent seasons prove that seeding may very well be of little consequence. The 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers were just the four-seed, but still barreled their way through the Eastern Conference to make it to the NBA Finals (albeit with some close calls against the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics). In the last 10 seasons, only two of the teams to reach the Finals from the East have been one-seeded teams.

Despite teams like the 2018 Toronto Raptors or the 2014 Indiana Pacers feeling that the number one seed would give them the edge to advance to the Finals, instead the lower-seeded LeBron James-led teams (the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat, respectively) prevailed. With that being said, it’s easy to see why there would be a sentiment that, as James proved time after time, seeding really isn’t that important.

However, as I adamantly spoke of in my latest Utah Jazz podcast for TheJNotes.com, I firmly disagree with the notion that the regular season and seeding are unimportant. In fact, the last 10 years in the East that I mentioned have been quite the anomaly when we look at historical results. During that same amount of time in the West, six out of the 10 teams to appear in the Finals have been number one seeds.

Historically, the odds are swayed even heavier towards the top seed. In the West, 63 percent (46 out of 73) of Finals teams all-time have been number one seeds. In the East, that figure is a similar 59 percent (43 out of 73), meaning in total, 61 percent of all NBA Finals teams have been number one seeds. If we expand that to include one and two-seeds, that percentage goes up astronomically to a whopping 85 percent.

Yep, a whopping 85 percent of all NBA Finals contestants have been a one or two-seed. In the history of the NBA, there have only been 14 number three seeds in the Finals (seven from the West and seven from the East) five number four seeds (two from the West and three from the East), two number six seeds (both from the West) and one number eight seed (from the East). No number five or number seven seed has ever made the NBA Finals. No seed under the sixth seed has ever won an NBA championship.

In other words, in looking at the Utah Jazz who have finished fifth three years running, not only does history not favor teams in that position (as I said, no five-seed has ever even made it to the NBA Finals), but it’s clear they’re going to have to do much better than that if they truly want a chance to compete for a title. On paper, the Jazz definitely look like a team that can contend for the NBA’s highest prize, but by no means are they the favorite.

With that said, they’ll need a lot of things to fall into place such as health, chemistry and of course a lot of luck. But not only that, the Jazz will very likely need the added perk of home court advantage if they are to truly make a Finals run.

That in and of itself is a major reason why teams that don’t have a top seed seldom make it all the way in the postseason. If you’re below the fifth seed (and even four seeds don’t have a very good track record in the playoffs) then you’re most likely facing three grueling series in which you’ll have to win without having home court advantage. Especially in the daunting Western Conference, that’s far from an easy feat.

Sure, you may get one upset or even two, but pulling off all three en route to the Finals is no easy task. That’s a big reason why I worry about some Western Conference teams that may lean too heavily toward load management and resting, as they could very well find themselves with a lower seed thinking they’ll be fine, but then in reality be facing an uphill battle.

As it pertains to the Jazz, they absolutely need to take the regular season seriously. Not only would a top seed give them the advantage of historical odds resting firmly on their side, but it would also allow them to secure home court advantage which would be vital for a team that likely won’t be the favorite.

Aside from historical odds and home court advantage, in my opinion the regular season is also crucial because remaining disciplined and focused all season long breeds a culture and expectation of winning which will be vital in the postseason. If teams get accustomed to complacency in the regular season, it will be hard to shake that when the playoffs roll around. That’s not something I would want to see out of the Jazz at all.

Especially considering that they’ve gotten off to slow starts in each of the past two seasons, which has significantly lowered their seeding, they need to prove from the season’s onset that they are primed and ready to go. The Jazz have an unfortunate history of failing to live up to expectations, and that simply can’t happen if they want to compete for a championship this season.

Now let me conclude with one bit of a disclaimer. While I am opposed to over-resting, or failing to take regular season games seriously, I also see the merit of smart load management and doing the best to ensure a healthy team is fielded come playoff time. The Toronto Raptors had great success easing Kawhi Leonard along all regular season and it produced an NBA Championship.

But then again, that was done in the East. If the LA Clippers try that in the West, it could easily cause them to slide out of the top one or two-spot which, as I’ve explained in detail here, could severely limit their odds of success. It’s important to make sure players are healthy and in good condition for the playoffs, but taking that too far could be highly detrimental from a seeding, chemistry and focus standpoint.

Personally, I would understand if the Jazz decided to take it somewhat easy with the older Mike Conley and the often heavily used Rudy Gobert, who has had injury problems in the past. But that doesn’t mean they can laugh off losses or ignore their regular season seeding.

Between their need for all the little things to fall into place including home court advantage, and the fact that history stands strongly behind one and two-seeds, the Jazz absolutely need to do everything they can to fight for top positioning come playoff time. No, they shouldn’t be reckless, but the one or two-seed needs to be viewed as a top priority for a Jazz team that will be heavily pursuing what could be a slim championship window in 2019-20.