Following a frenetic free agency period, the Utah Jazz have a high amount of variability heading into a highly anticipated 2019-20 campaign, and Donovan Mitchell isn’t the only Jazzman about to make a third-year jump.
Royce O’Neale is coming off an impressive sophomore season that saw him take a huge stride in becoming a key component to this Utah Jazz team. Yet, at 25 years old, it’s historically and statistically unlikely to see an undrafted player elevate his game much further, leaving most fans thinking we’ve already seen O’Neale’s ceiling.
I, however, am expecting a breakout year from Royce that blows last season out of the water. In my opinion, he’s clearly the leading candidate to land the starting power forward role, as argued by Jared Woodcox last week.
He has proven capable of holding his own defensively against the NBA’s finest across multiple positions. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands offensively, which is preferable with Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic on the floor.
Finally, he adds an element of shooting to the starting unit that was previously non-existent at the position.
O’Neale was incredibly effective last year when playing with an advantage created by the offense, either spotting up to shoot or attacking close outs. He was in the 97th percentile in effective field goal percentage and the 92nd percentile in 3-point shooting among all wing players last season (!!!).
In comparison to the Jazz’s primary and secondary power forwards from the year past, Jae Crowder was in the 26th percentile in effective field goal percentage and the 41st percentile in 3-point shooting. Meanwhile, Derrick Favors was in the 84th percentile in effective field goal percentage, but just the sixth percentile in 3-point shooting.
Utah Jazz
Therefore, Royce undoubtedly adds shooting to the starting lineup that can bolster the Jazz’s offense and put them on another level without sacrificing anything on the defensive end. Really, who gets the starting power forward spot is a no-brainer when you delve into the numbers.
While Royce O’Neale was sharing the court with Rudy Gobert without Favors, Crowder, Georges Niang and Thabo Sefolosha on the floor, the numbers were just ridiculous. The sample size is far too small to draw legitimate conclusions, but in 109 possessions, the Jazz had an offensive rating of 143.2 and a defensive rating of 85.7.
So, despite being unable to project this given the sample size, saying Royce O’Neale and Rudy Gobert can co-exist in the frontcourt is still well supported.
The biggest argument for O’Neale not being able to hold his own at the four spot is due to his size. Standing just 6-foot-6, he would be one of the smaller starting power forwards in the NBA. Nevertheless, Royce is a tremendous rebounder. Last season, he was in the 93rd percentile of all wing players in defensive rebounding, collecting 14.8 percent of all available defensive rebounds.
Not only do I expect to see Royce in the starting lineup this upcoming season, I’m expecting to see him on the floor for around 26 minutes per night and regularly closing out games. He could very well be the X-Factor for the Jazz in the 2019-20 season.
Statistics courtesy of Cleaning the Glass.