Utah Jazz on likely playoff collision course with Portland

Barring some surprising results in the final days of the NBA regular season, it appears that the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers are on a playoff collision course.

It’s almost hard to believe, but the NBA Playoffs are merely a week away. It feels like just yesterday that Utah Jazz fans were panicking about their team’s slow start and wondering if they’d make the playoffs at all. Of course, Quin Snyder, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Co. proved those doubts severely wrong and look poised to finish fifth or better in the West for the third straight season.

Having already clinched a playoff spot a number of days ago, we know for certain that the Jazz will see postseason action next weekend. However, the question that yet remains is which seed they’ll finish in and who their first-round foe will be.

The possibilities are numerous as Utah could still possibly finish anywhere from fourth to seventh place. However, some of those are unlikely. And based on what we see now, the most probable outcome is that the Utah Jazz are on track to face the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs.

As things stand currently, if the playoffs started today, Portland would be the fourth seed and the Jazz would be the fifth seed. Utah trails the Blazers by one game, while leading the LA Clippers by a game and a half.

Conveniently, the Jazz and Blazers both have just three games remaining. And if the Jazz and Blazers end up with the same record, the Jazz will own the tiebreaker. Although the two teams tied in the regular season 2-2, the Jazz will end the year with the better divisional record as the best Portland can finish is 6-10 whereas Utah is already 7-8 with a chance to go 8-8 if they beat Denver next week.

In other words, if Utah goes 3-0 and Portland loses at least one game, then it’s essentially a guarantee that Utah will be the fourth seed and Portland will be the fifth. The exception to this is if the Houston Rockets fall apart in their final two games, but considering that their last contest is against the Phoenix Suns, I have a hard time seeing that happening.

There is a situation where the Rockets go 1-1 and the Blazers go 3-0 then, owning the tiebreaker over Houston, move up to third. But considering that the Blazers still have to play the Denver Nuggets and two dangerously scrappy teams in the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings, I’m not banking on that being the case. There are a few other scenarios (most of them involve the Jazz falling apart and going 0-3 to close out the year) but all probability is pointing towards a Jazz-Blazers first round.

With such being the case, one can’t help but ask, is this a good thing? Well, the short answer is yes and no. Considering that the Blazers will be without their starting center Jusuf Nurkic who recently suffered a devastating leg injury in a win over the Brooklyn Nets, Portland instantly comes into the postseason less daunting than they otherwise would be. Nurkic was known for giving Gobert and the Jazz trouble, so this instantly creates a hopeful matchup for Utah.

Furthermore, in comparison to the likes of the Houston Rockets, who present an awful matchup for the Jazz, or the Oklahoma City Thunder, who had Utah’s number this regular season, I’d say Portland’s probably the most favorable foe. In those aspects, this likely outcome is certainly a positive for the Jazz.

On the other hand, though, not only does a 4 or 5-seed finish mean facing the Golden State Warriors in the second round (GSW needs just one more win to clinch the top seed), but even sans Nurkic, the Blazers are no pushovers.

Well before the injury to the Bosnian Beast, the Blazers signed former Jazzman Enes Kanter to provide depth at the center spot. Jazz fans know his shortcomings all too well, specifically his defensive deficiencies, but he’s put up some good minutes for the Blazers and will certainly be playing with a chip on his shoulder if he faces Utah in round one.

Not only that, but we all know what the likes of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are capable of. They’ve torched the Jazz several times in the past and present as challenging of a backcourt matchup as there can be.

That’s especially true against Ricky Rubio who’s had issues versus elite point guards all season, and even truer if he and/or Raul Neto continue to deal with lingering injuries. If Rubio and Neto are unable to go, Lillard will very likely be able to feast against a Jazz team that has been without point guard depth all season.

Not only that, but the Blazers are a deep team with guys who can make significant contributions up and down their first and second unit. That’s a huge reason why they’ve surpassed the 50-win mark and why they’ve gone a respectable 4-2 even without their stellar center. Last of all, Portland is led by one of the most prolific, albeit underrated, coaches in the league in Terry Stotts.

I mean no disrespect to Billy Donovan or Doc Rivers, who are both great coaches (particularly the latter), but in terms of style and adaptability, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Quin Snyder will be facing his toughest postseason coaching matchup yet as the Jazz head coach if he does indeed go up against Stotts. Stotts knows how to maximize his players and take advantage of matchups across the roster. Expect this to play a major factor if Utah and Portland do indeed meet in round one.

Frankly, if the Blazers were at full strength with Nurkic in action, I wouldn’t be too keen on Utah’s odds in a series against Portland. However, with the Bosnian Beast down for the count, and especially when comparing this matchup to playing the likes of Houston or OKC, I actually do think it’s a pretty ideal situation for the Jazz, all things considered. Ideal does not mean easy, though, and the Blazers are far from a pushover.

The next few days will bring extended clarity to what we should expect in regards to playoff matchups, but barring some highly surprising results between now and the final day of the NBA regular season on April 10th, it’s extremely probable that the Jazz and Blazers will be the ones that face off.

And if such ends up being the case, it’s probably good news for the Utah Jazz (until the second round that is), but it still won’t be easy. Expect a third straight hard-fought first round where the Jazz will have to be at their absolute best in order to advance to the second round. The playoffs get underway on April 13th, and I think I speak for Jazz fans everywhere when I say I couldn’t be more excited.