Some statistical projection models are giving the Utah Jazz an outside shot to shock the world and make a run to the 2019 NBA Finals.
If you’re like me and you’re A) old and B) way more into Batman than any adult with a spouse, child and mortgage ever should be, there’s a better than average chance you’ll recall the infamous scene from Tim Burton’s Batman where Michael Keaton brandishes a fireplace poker and screams, “You wanna get nuts? COME ON — let’s get nuts!”
As that rhetorical question has since become the mantra by which I guide my journey through life, I felt compelled to share the nuttiest thing I’ve seen today — FiveThirtyEight‘s current CARMELO projections could be interpreted as endorsing the Utah Jazz as a dark-horse contender for a run at the NBA Finals.
No joke.
The predictions, which are updated after every game and depth chart revision, currently have the Jazz at a four percent chance of getting to the Finals. It’s a small number, to be sure, but it’s actually the third-best probability in the Western Conference, trailing just the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets.
Clearly, you’re not going to find any of the national hoops pundits endorsing the Jazz as a team that could give the Dubs a run for their money. Having said that, is the Jazz’s strong CARMELO showing or the idea of them coming out of the West really as insane as Keaton’s fireplace soliloquy to making it into the final cut of Batman?
Maybe not. In fact, multiple stats actually have the Jazz at or near the top of the Association and not in the middle of the West’s pecking order as the current standings suggest.
You may be surprised to know that, as of this writing, the Jazz boast the fourth-best net rating (5.0) in the entire NBA. Since the Kyle Korver trade, they have a net rating of 8.2, which trails only the league-leading Milwaukee Bucks, and by the slimmest of margins — 0.4 points/100 possessions over the same time span.
In other words, the Jazz are consistently beating teams as badly as any squad in the Association.
If we stick to the post-Korver trade time frame (since that more accurately reflects the Jazz’s current roster), the Jazz are also No. 1 in D-rating, No.1 in opponent effective field goal percentage, No. 1 in defensive and total rebounding percentages, No. 2 in eliminating second-chance points, No. 2 in effective field goal percentage and No. 3 in assist percentage.
In terms of wins and losses, the Jazz also have the fourth-best record in the league since the trade at 38-18.
That’s just a small sample of the numbers that make the Jazz analytical darlings and give them the look of a legitimate contender from a purely statistical standpoint.
Now, does that mean I’m picking the Jazz to escape the West and go for the Larry O’Brien Trophy? That would be nuts; we all know that this thing is the Warriors’ to lose. Still, the fact of the matter is that the Jazz are a lot better than many are giving them credit for — those people should take note of what the stats and projections are saying.
Then, they should go watch Batman — I still can’t fathom how Keaton didn’t get the Oscar there.
Am I right?