Utah Jazz: Consistency will be key to post All-Star break surge
By John Keeffer
The Utah Jazz have been consistently inconsistent over the first 52 games of the season. With a soft remaining schedule, now will be the time to turn that around.
If you are a Utah Jazz fan, you have likely become familiar with the ups and downs over the past few seasons. This year has been no different. If not worse.
Heading into the year, many national media members pegged the Jazz to be the second best team in the West. That was certainly a testament to how they finished the 2017-18 season. They went 29-6 over the final 35 games, and defeated the OKC Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. With a team built around a 26-year-old giant and a 22-year-old rookie, the sky seemed to be the limit for the Jazz.
What most fans and the media didn’t factor in though was the murderous schedule the Jazz were going to have to endure over the first three months of the season. They had, by far, the hardest schedule in the league through the New Year.
Perhaps due in large part to that schedule, the Jazz have been the most inconsistent team in the league this year. And I’m not just saying that.
Per NBA Stuffer, the Utah Jazz have the highest consistency rating in the NBA. That sounds good, but it's not. Essentially, the higher the number, the higher the variance in your efficiency differential from game to game. Simply put, they're the most inconsistent team in the NBA.
— John Keeffer (@john_keeffer) February 20, 2019
While perusing through some of the many advanced NBA stat websites late in the night (you know, like ya do), I came across NBA Stat Stuffer’s consistency ratings. The official definition from the site is: Consistency based on game-by-game efficiency differential variation. The higher the teams consistency rating, the more unpredictable it is.
To expand a bit more on that, they are comparing the Offensive and Defensive Ratings from game-to-game, and then assigning a number value to show how much of a variation there is from game-to-game.
The Jazz are boasting a consistency rating at 17.6. The next closest is San Antonio at 17.1. They are one of only five teams with a rating about 16.
Now that number isn’t the end-all, be-all. I mean, based on that stat alone, Memphis and New York have been two of the most consistent teams in the league. They are just consistently bad. There is something to be said about consistently performing to the best of your ability though, and the results that that is certain to bring.
The Jazz have not done that this season.
For those who have been watching the Jazz consistently all season, it is not very surprising to see that they were the league leader in this stat. Their scoring differential has been all over the map. They go from blowing a team out, to being blown out themselves. There has not been a lot of in between.
I mentioned yesterday that the Jazz are the most inconsistent team in the NBA, here is a graph that can help you visualize it. That dip in the middle? It's because the Jazz are rarely in close games. It's usually a big win or a big loss. Not a lot of in-between. pic.twitter.com/llsGuJJpBF
— John Keeffer (@john_keeffer) February 20, 2019
The Jazz have played in five games all season where the score has ended between 1-4 points. Four of those games have been on the losing side. Their wins have been pretty spaced out, with 10 wins coming between 5-9 points, nine coming between 10-19 points, and another nine between 20-29. On the flip side, they have 10 losses between 5-9 points, and six between 10-19.
For the first four months of the season, it has been hard to know what to expect from this team heading into each game. The schedule has definitely played a large part in that. It is hard to find any sense of consistency when you are constantly traveling due to a front-heavy schedule. Between, November 13 and December 4, the Jazz played a whopping 13 consecutive games in a different arena. How are you supposed to straighten out any kinks with a schedule like that?
Heading into the post All-Star stretch, this is the area that the Jazz must improve. The break should have given the coaches and players the time to regroup and iron out any kinks. They have some difficult matchups over the next two weeks, but from there, they’ll enter a stretch where they could theoretically reel off 12 wins in-a-row.
They’ll play OKC twice (including last night), Denver and Milwaukee over the next two weeks. From there, they will only play two games against teams with a record currently above .500. Denver, and the LA Clippers.
Next. Utah Jazz: Dante Exum is nearing a return to the court. dark
If they can resolve their consistency issues due to the time off and a soft schedule going forward, they can still have a chance to get into the 4-seed for home court advantage, and then, who knows? Maybe they can catch the right first and second round matchups to make a run to the Western Conference Finals.