Are the Utah Jazz on a first-round collision course with the Houston Rockets?

It’s far too early to know for certain, but current trends point to a Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets showdown in the first round of the 2019 NBA Playoffs.

Considering we have yet to reach the All-Star break, it’s far too early to begin speculating on playoff matchups. So much could change between now and mid-April that it’s impossible to give conclusive evidence on how things will actually turn out.

But when has that ever stopped anybody?

Sure, it’s a ways off, but NBA teams are certainly entering the home stretch with the All-Star Game upon us this weekend. As such, each squad in contention is certainly thinking playoffs and aiming to get themselves in the best position possible.

The past two years, the Utah Jazz have managed to finish with the fifth seed to take on teams that, though they were favored over the Jazz, were a reasonably good matchup for them. Quin Snyder out-coached Doc Rivers and the LA Clippers as well as Billy Donovan and the OKC Thunder in consecutive years, and both times the team-centered and defensive-focused Jazz triumphed.

Though they currently sit at sixth in the West, with one of the easiest remaining schedules in the Western Conference, it’s entirely plausible that the Jazz could continue to climb, finishing well above their current spot. They’re currently just a mere game out of fourth place, which would give them home court advantage in the four-five matchup.

But while the four-five matchup has panned out quite well for them in years past, will such be the case again this time around? As I alluded to before, it’s far too early to venture an accurate guess, but based on my analysis and speculation, I’m foreseeing a much tougher first-round battle this time around. Namely, a duel with the Houston Rockets – the selfsame squad that knocked the Jazz out of the playoffs in five games in the second round a year ago.

As the standings currently reside, the Golden State Warriors are on top by a 2.5-game margin. Though that’s not an enormous gap, barring a mental lapse or other unforeseen setback, it’s hard to believe any team will have the fortitude to overtake them in the standings.

Meanwhile, the battle for second place is a thrilling one. The Denver Nuggets are there for now, but only lead the Oklahoma City Thunder by a single game thanks to OKC’s current streak of nine wins in ten games. If OKC remains this hot, it’s difficult to see the Nuggets remaining ahead of them. Denver is a solid team and has had a great season, but they certainly haven’t kept up their early pace, and I don’t think anyone’s disputing the overall talent and experience advantage boasted by the Thunder.

That said, I have a feeling when all is said and done, OKC will ascend to second place rather than dropping in the standings. And while some Jazz fans may enjoy a consecutive first-round bout against the Thunder, the way they’re playing this year, that may be a death wish.

If the Thunder do move up, it’s entirely possible that the Nuggets slide even below the third place spot where they would otherwise be. However, they currently maintain a comfortable five-game lead over the fourth-place Portland Trail Blazers. In other words, barring a significant slump down the season’s stretch, I have a feeling that Denver will remain comfortably in the top three.

While it could be argued that the Portland Trail Blazers may maintain their spot in the fourth or fifth position (they currently have the same record as the fifth-place Rockets), they are facing a tough, road-heavy schedule to close out the year, including a daunting seven-game road trip immediately following the All-Star break. Yikes.

As such, I can definitely see the Blazers slipping down the standings and the Jazz moving up in their place amidst an easier schedule. Meanwhile, as I mentioned, considering Denver’s early lead and OKC’s prolific play, I don’t see Houston quite breaking into the top three, especially with the injury concerns they’ve had with Chris Paul and Clint Capela. But I do see them staying solidly at fourth or fifth.

Which is exactly where I believe the Jazz, with their easier schedule, will finish as well. Such would place Houston and Utah in that four-five matchup, with home court advantage going to whichever team ekes out a better record.

That wouldn’t necessarily be good news for the Jazz. They struggled to compete against Houston in last year’s playoffs, recently suffered a blowout loss to them in the final regular season contest between the two and I don’t believe Utah matches up well against them. With the likes of James Harden, who’s so hard to defend, and Chris Paul, who’s a renowned Jazz killer, I don’t like the looks of that matchup for the Jazz at all.

Not only that, but because of the lengthy bout with injuries that the Rockets have faced this season, I think they’re a much better team than their record indicates. If they’re fully healthy come playoff time, they could be hitting their stride and poised to devastate a less formidable Jazz team in the first round.

On the flip side, I don’t believe Houston is as good as last year due to injury struggles, Paul aging and the absence of two of their former staunch defensive presences in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute. Nevertheless, I still would be less than excited about a Jazz-Rockets first-round series and would project for Harden and the Rockets to win quite easily.

With that being the case, I hope such a series can be avoided. And, as I said, we’re still far away from being able to accurately project how things will pan out, though I’d say it’s quite reasonable to expect a Jazz-Rockets first-round series. Several indications, such as teams playing well, hard or easy schedules of teams involved, etc. seem to be proof that Utah and Houston are on a first-round collision course.

However, perhaps the Jazz will stay in sixth and instead find themselves matched up against Denver or OKC. Maybe Houston will surge and one of those two squads will be the four-five matchup against Utah. Maybe the Rockets will limp down the stretch (literally and figuratively) and Utah will instead face the Portland Trail Blazers in the four-five matchup.

None of those opponents would be easy, it is the Wild West after all, but I’d say all would be favorable over Houston. The Nuggets would likely be my top choice due to the fact that, despite their solid play this year, they’re largely led by playoff newbies over which the Jazz could very well emerge triumphant. The Blazers and Thunder would be difficult, but I would foresee Utah having more confidence against them than the Rockets.

This is all heavy speculation at this point, but the path is certainly visible. Houston and Utah may very well face off in the first round. If such were the case, perhaps Utah would defy the odds and pull off the upset for the third year running. Nevertheless, I’d still prefer they found themselves up against a different team entirely.

In less than two months, the playoff landscape will be completed in its entirety.