Utah Jazz: An early look at the Western Conference playoff picture

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OAKLAND, CA – DECEMBER 27: Kevin Durant #35, Stephen Curry #30 and Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors celebrate after a basket against the Portland Trail Blazers at ORACLE Arena on December 27, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

The Top 4

Golden State Warriors: 32-14
Record projections:
Basketball Reference: 55-27, 1 seed
ESPN BPI: 56-26, 1 seed
FiveThirtyEight: 60-22, 1 seed

The Warriors are the best team in the league. They may or may not end up with a better record than some of the top East teams, but I don’t know if anyone doubts that the Dubs are still on top. Their offense has been clicking and they are just now getting healthy. We all know that they have been cruising in the last few regular seasons, and have shown the ability to seamlessly turn on the jets in the playoffs. The Warriors look poised to get the 1 seed.

Denver Nuggets: 31-14
Record projections:
Basketball Reference: 52-30, 2 seed
ESPN BPI: 53-29, 2 seed
FiveThirtyEight: 53-29, 2 seed

Denver has been incredibly solid all year, despite missing more games to injury than any other team. Their injuries haven’t just been to scrubs either. They’ve missed games from some of their best players all year, and they’ve still managed to stay in the 2-spot, just recently giving up the top spot to the Warriors.

While the Nuggets’ defense, which had surprised many fans early, has regressed recently, their offense has remained elite. Nikola Jokic is absolutely playing MVP caliber basketball. Denver may not get as much respect nationally as many other teams in the west, but they are a powerhouse.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 28-18
Record projections:
Basketball Reference: 47-35, 5 seed
ESPN BPI: 48-34, 4 seed
FiveThirtyEight: 51-31, 3 seed

OKC may have the most variance in these projections, and I expect that has a lot to do with their remaining strength of schedule. The Thunder have been really good for the first half of the season, powered by incredible play from Paul George and a stingy defense. They have also been helped by a very soft schedule. That will no longer be the case. The Thunder will have to play one of the toughest schedules in the league to close out the season.

Such a schedule imbalance can make it hard to predict their outcome, and hard to know exactly how good they are. However, there is no question that the Thunder are a force to be reckoned with.

Portland Trail Blazers: 28-19
Record projections:
Basketball Reference: 48-34, 4 seed
ESPN BPI: 47-35, 6 seed
FiveThirtyEight: 47-35, 6 seed

Portland, OKC, Utah and Houston are projected to be very close in the standings when all is said and done. Tiebreakers and conference records may become very important for the seeding. We might see multiple tied records in the standings just like last year. Portland seems to be right in the middle of that pack.

They have been a good playoff team for years, and there is no reason to believe otherwise this year. Damian Lillard‘s consistent elite play, combined with CJ McCollum‘s excellent scoring and Jusuf Nurkic‘s strong year five campaign have made Portland a very tough team to beat. They will likely end up fighting for home court advantage come April. Whether they start the playoffs at home or on the road will probably be determined by only one or two games.

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