Utah Jazz comebacks are hot, but unsustainable long-term
By Ryan Aston
The Utah Jazz notched another big comeback win, this time against the Orlando Magic. Exciting though it was, it represents an unsustainable brand of basketball.
Well, that was something. After falling down by double digits early and trailing by as many as 21 points in their home bout with the Orlando Magic, the Utah Jazz battled back in epic fashion, riding a 25-3 third-quarter run to a big win over Aaron Gordon and company on Wednesday to even their record on the year.
It was the team’s second comeback win its last two games and, man…it was sweet.
As good as it was, though, it also represents an entirely unsustainable brand of basketball that the Jazz need to nip at the bud before it derails their playoff hopes.
In the NBA, teams that build 15-plus point leads ultimately win a given game at a rate approaching 90 percent. And, recently, the Jazz have been following the perfect blueprint to put themselves in the 10 percent zone.
Over their last three games, Utah has been outscored by an average of nearly 10 points in first quarters. That number ranks dead last league-wide and is the product of the team shooting just 37 percent from the floor while the opposition burns the Jazz D from the outside.
In those contests, opponents are hitting nearly five triples on average in the opening carom and shooting the three at nearly 54 percent overall. Both figures rank among the bottom three defensively in the Association. In a league that has become all about the long ball on both sides of the floor, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Curiously, the Jazz’s linchpin Donovan Mitchell has been one of if not the worst performer for the team to start games, and that’s not just part of the recent trend either. For the year, Mitchell has an effective field goal percentage of just 37.4 and is putting up less than four points on average in quarter one.
As a result, the Jazz offense sputters to the tune of scoring just 98 points per 100 possessions in first quarters when he is on the floor. Mitchell is truly a great player, but that’s simply not going to work from your go-to guy.
Needless to say, the combination of poor perimeter defense and your star player throwing up bricks for the first 12 minutes of games is not a good one.
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Make no mistake about it, when the Jazz mount these epic comebacks, it makes for some exciting basketball. The utter awesomeness of their second-half brilliance far outweighs the doldrums of the bad starts in that respect.
But if they continue to live dangerously by limping out of the starting gate, they’ll continue to fall short of their goals in the wild Western Conference.