Is it realistic to project that the Utah Jazz will be at .500 by January 1?

The Utah Jazz have gotten off to more of a rough start than many had hoped. Can they keep their head above water and crack the .500 mark by January 1?

Ask just about any Utah Jazz fan out there and they’ll all tell you pretty much the same thing. It’s been a disappointing start to the season for a team that was pinned as a top team in the West, by some as high as the second best team in the conference.

Of course, a lot of that has had to do with an incredibly difficult schedule, but still, that doesn’t change the fact that the Jazz have dropped some games that they should have won. As such, they currently find themselves at a less than inspiring record of 14-15, good for just 12th in the Western Conference.

Honestly, that’s not a terrible mark considering their overwhelming strength of schedule. But I think it’s still fair to say that fans, and the Jazz themselves, expected more out of this squad.

The good news, though, is that the team has shown some great signs of late that they may very well be turning a corner. Prior to a recent downturn with losses in a back-to-back set in San Antonio and Oklahoma City, the Jazz won four out of five contests, then bounced back nicely from those aforementioned losses with a blowout win on Wednesday against the Miami Heat.

Considering how inconsistent they’ve been, but that they’ve given their fans signs of encouragement of late, how realistic is it to suppose that they could be at .500 by the turn of the calendar year, at which point their schedule eases up significantly?

Between now and then, the Jazz have eight games remaining, meaning they’d have to go 5-3 to surpass that mark. Let’s take a quick look at each one and try to dissect how they should do.

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First off, they’ll travel to Mexico City for an NBA Global game against the Orlando Magic. Under normal circumstances, I’d like Utah’s chances of winning this one. The Magic have been pretty lackluster this season, and the Jazz are coming into the game with two full days off. Not to mention, the distance from Salt Lake to Mexico City is actually less than Salt Lake to Orlando.

However, what worries me are potential external obligations as part of the unique circumstances of the game that could distract or tire out the team, as well as the fact that the Orlando Magic have already been in Mexico City for a game and thus have had more of a chance to acclimate. The Magic will likely be more prepared than the travelling Jazz and therefore could have a bit of an edge.

Nevertheless, I still am pinning the Jazz to win this one. The inconsistent Magic are just 13-15 and have had their fair share of struggles this season. In all, the Jazz are a more talented squad and considering they’ll be relatively well-rested, should be in a prime spot to win the contest.

A win there would instantly put the Jazz back to .500 at a mark of 15-15, but would they then be able to hold onto that to remain as such by January 1?

Unfortunately, things get quite a bit tougher from there. The Jazz will travel from Mexico City to Houston, where they’ll do battle yet again against the Rockets. The Jazz have fared well against the erratic Rockets so far this year, but this could be a tough road game against a Houston team that’s bound to get things more together than they have to start the season.

Despite two consecutive nice wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers, though, I’m still not convinced all is back to normal for the Rockets this season. The Jazz have matched up well against them through two games, and I’m feeling optimistic that they’ll do so again. A win here would then put Utah a game above .500.

Next, the Jazz head back home for yet another infuriating single home game. I’ve talked about it in quite some detail recently, but these single home games rather than home stands have been extremely frustrating as they’ve prevented Utah from building any semblance of rhythm or momentum both in general and particularly on their home court.

To make matters worse, this game will be against the defending champion Golden State Warriors. The Jazz pushed them to the brink earlier in the year, but based on the nature of how this game has been scheduled, I’m predicting that it will end in an L for the Jazz. If such is the case, it would then bring the Jazz back to .500 at 16-16.

The Jazz will then continue their travel up to Portland to take on the Trail Blazers next. The Blazers have been in a little bit of a slump of late, losing seven of their last 10, but the Jazz have a track record of struggling at the Moda Center. This will come on the tail end of a trip that includes the lengthy flight out to Mexico City and only a one-game stop at home, so I’m not too peckish on Utah’s chances in this one. I’m predicting it to be a loss, unfortunately dropping Utah below .500 yet again.

From there, the very next night the Jazz will be back at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder decimated the Jazz in the two teams’ previous meeting on the second night of a back-to-back. Considering this one is under a similar circumstance, I’m predicting that home court advantage won’t be enough and Utah will falter yet again. I know it hurts to think about it, but this would then put the Jazz back two games below .500 yet again.

But don’t lose heart, Jazz fans, because from there I think we’ll see the beginnings of a nice turnaround. While it’s unfortunate that the game I just mentioned against OKC is on the second night of a back-to-back, the good thing about it is that it is the beginning of Utah’s first true home stand in what feels like forever. They’ll close out 2018 with three more home games in a row (with a day off in between each!), all of which I like their odds in.

First will be the long-awaited Christmas Day contest against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers tend to be a tough matchup for the Jazz, but considering the excitement that will surround this game and the home court advantage Utah will boast, I like their odds. Next will be a tough one against the Philadelphia 76ers, but they’ve been an up and down squad themselves this year. Again, I’m leaning towards optimism and home court advantage prevailing.

Lastly, the Jazz end the calendar year with their first contest of the season against a bottom-five team in the NBA when they face the New York Knicks. That’s right, up until now, the Jazz have had yet to play a single one of the league’s bottom feeders – the Knicks, Cavs, Hawks, Bulls or Suns. Barring a massive disappointment, this one should be the easiest win of the bunch.

If Utah were to rattle off three straight wins to close out the calendar year as I’ve projected, that would then put them back above .500 at a decent mark of 19-18. Considering how difficult the schedule has been to start the year, and knowing what a prime position the Jazz will be in to continue to climb the standings in the latter part of the year, this would be an excellent mark, in my opinion.

And as you can see by the breakdown of the eight games remaining between now and January 1, it’s quite realistic to expect the Jazz to accomplish just that. Sure, there’s quite a few games that could go either way, such as the bout against Philly or either game against the Blazers, but even if I’m off on some of the specifics, I’m feeling good about a 5-3 close to the calendar year.

That will of course require the better version of this Jazz team showing up, but if they can start stringing together some momentum, they’ll be more than capable of accomplishing it. I know the season has had its severe ups and downs, but I’m quite confident that we’ll see a Jazz team just above .500 by the end of the calendar year.

If I’m wrong, feel free to give me as hard of a time as you’d like in two and half weeks. Until then, we’ll just have to wait and see how things unfold for what’s been a hard-to-predict Utah Jazz squad so far.