Utah Jazz: Which player needs to take the biggest leap?

With the Utah Jazz choosing to run the same team back this next season, which player needs to take the biggest leap for the team to truly contend?

Entering into this offseason, the Utah Jazz had a number of avenues that they could go. With multiple players set to hit free agency, the Jazz had the option of going hard after a top tier free agent, bringing one or two players back, or just running it all back. They chose to run it all back, and while that definitely isn’t the most exciting route to go, it was the best option in my opinion.

Now, as the season is drawing closer, many outlets are projecting that the Jazz could finish as high as the number two seed in the stacked Western Conference.

All the projections and praise got me thinking: if the Jazz are going to be bringing back essentially the same team as last season, what is going to need to change for them to be an even better squad? In the end, it comes down to internal progression.

So with that in mind, which player needs to take the biggest leap in performance for the Jazz to truly have a chance at finishing the year as the second best team in the West?

At first thought, we would likely all jump to Donovan Mitchell. He exceeded all expectations as a rookie, and the expectation would be that he plays even better as a sophomore. My guess is that Donovan Mitchell will not have an increase in volume next season, but instead his efficiencies will improve. I expect him to shoot the three at a higher percentage, and to also get to the free throw line more.

If Mitchell can increase his made 3-pointers per game from 2.4 to 3.4, while also increasing his free throws attempts from 3.8 to 6.0 per game, he can finish the season average around 25 points per game.

That would certainly be impressive, and could possibly get him into the All-Star Game, but I don’t know if that is what helps the Jazz get the two seed.

The next player that jumps to mind is Rudy Gobert, but the Jazz don’t really need to see a jump in production from him. They just need him to be relatively healthy throughout the year. If Gobert can play in 70 plus games, that would be considered a win.

Dante Exum maybe makes the most sense, because of all the players who are likely to get meaningful minutes for the Jazz next season, he is the one who has yet to even come close to maximizing his fullest potential.

I know many Jazz fans have likely lost faith in Exum. It is hard to be patient with a player who was selected fifth overall and has rarely been able to stay on the floor for the Jazz.

That said, I am still high on Exum, and when he does play, he continues to show flashes of brilliance that reconfirm Utah’s choice in selecting him so high. Before suffering a shoulder injury last pre-season, it looked like Exum would be pushing Ricky Rubio for the starting point guard spot.

When he returned from the injury, he looked fantastic in spurts. He continued to attack the basket as if the shoulder was 100 percent, finishing at a 67.6 percent clip around the basket, and ended the year with career-high averages in points, assists and steals.

The biggest concern with Exum is his shooting. Maybe it was just the shoulder injury, but in limited action last season, Exum seemed reluctant to shoot threes, even when open. In today’s NBA, you have to have a willingness to shoot the three, even if you are not the best shooter in the league.

If Exum were to take a big leap in production and turn himself into a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate, then he could be the biggest difference maker in turning the Jazz into a title contender.

I just don’t know if that is realistic…

I expect a much improved Dante Exum, but I am not expecting starter level production until perhaps the 2019-20 season.

That is why I think Ricky Rubio is going to be the biggest factor to the success of the Utah Jazz this next season, especially because we don’t necessarily need Rubio to reach a level that he has never been before. We just need him to match his production over the second half of last season.

From January 24th on, Rubio averaged an incredible 16 points, 6.0 assists, 5.3 rebounds and also shot 44 percent from three.

Just imagine if Rubio was able to be that player over the course of the entire season? I believe there is a good chance he can do it as well. David Locke, the radio voice of the Utah Jazz, has pointed out all offseason that Rubio has had to play for five different coaches over the last five seasons.

It is hard to be the point guard in an ever changing offensive system. If we can write off the start of last season to simply becoming acclimated to a new team and system, then his second half performance seems a lot more attainable.

If Ricky Rubio can take a leap this season by matching his second half numbers from last season, then he will make the biggest difference in the Jazz becoming the second seed in the West, and establishing themselves as true contenders for the title.