The second half of last season was the real deal
The best case scenario for the Utah Jazz revolves around two things: the validity of the second half of last season being for real and the internal growth of all the returning pieces.
From January 23rd on, the Jazz were absolutely one of the most dominant teams in the NBA. They ran off a 29-6 record, which only fell behind the Houston Rockets and the Philadelphia 76ers (who had an extremely soft schedule). The impressive record was due in large part to an above average offense – 108.2 offensive rating – to go along with one of the most dominant defenses we’ve seen in years – 96.5 defensive rating.
That combined offensive and defensive effort gave the Jazz a net rating of 12.0, which is just an absurd number. No other team in the entire NBA was even in double digits, and only three other teams finished with a net rating above 5.0.
A huge part of this mid-season turnaround was due to two players, and surprisingly enough, Donovan Mitchell was not one of them. The return of a healthy Rudy Gobert, and the mid-season turnaround of Ricky Rubio completely changed the course of this team.
Gobert finished the year of with a vengeance, and post-injury helped to form one of the most dominant defenses we have seen in years. There is a reason he won Defensive Player of the Year even though he only played 56 games on the season, and it is in large part due to the obvious difference he made when on the floor.
The Jazz allowed just 97.7 points per 100 possessions last season, and had several lineups with Gobert on the floor that were the best defensively in the league. Gobert’s presence is always felt, and he blocked 2.3 shots per game, finishing fourth in total blocks despite playing less games due to the injuries. When he didn’t play, the team’s defensive rating jumped to 105.0.
Offensively, Rubio was the player who shined the most over the second half of the season. The Jazz turned their season around on January 24th with an overtime win over the Detroit Pistons. I wrote this at the end of the season about Rubio:
"Rubio would become a completely different player from there on out and evolved into the heart and soul of the team. From then on, he averaged 16 points, six assists, 5.3 rebounds and also shot nearly 44 percent from three. If the Jazz can get that player for all of next season, they have a found a gem in Rubio."
Before injuries held him out of the second round playoff series against the Houston Rockets, Rubio more than held his own against former MVP Russell Westbrook, even dropping a triple double, and forcing Westbrook to make the statement that he would shut Rubio down in the next game.
“He made some shots. Too comfortable,” Westbrook said. “I’m gonna shut that s*** off next game, though. Guarantee that.”
By the way, that didn’t happen. As the Jazz would win Game 4 as well.
There are also other factors that could really help the Jazz. Like what type of jump will second year players Donovan Mitchell and Royce O’Neale take? Typically, second year players are able to take a drastic leap in production, and if both are able to do so, watch out.
If Dante Exum is healthy and has a full offseason to progress, how big of an impact can he have? Jae Crowder was just thrown into the mix halfway through the season. Will he be more impactful with a whole offseason to assimilate himself into the Jazz system and culture?
The best case scenario for this next season is that the second half dominance of the Utah Jazz was not just a fluke. The ‘bringing the band back together’ was the right play because of continuity and internal progression. If all this pans out and if they can stay healthy, the second seed in the West is truly in play for the Utah Jazz.