Oddsmakers continue to sleep on the Utah Jazz. The Las Vegas line set for the team’s 2018-19 win total is curiously low once again.
If you’re a fan of the Utah Jazz and you’re into betting the over/under on NBA win totals, you needn’t look further than your own team for a bit of easy money.
Jeff Sherman, who heads up the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, released the first lines on win totals for the 2018-19 season over the weekend. So, what’s the verdict on the Jazz band following a 48-win campaign and a first-round playoff series win over OKC? As ever, oddsmakers appear to be sleeping on Utah.
48.5 was the number set for the Jazz; the same number that was given to LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Golden State Warriors topped the West (and the NBA at large) at 62.5. They’re followed at No. 2 by the Houston Rockets with 54.5, the Oklahoma City Thunder at 50.5, while the Jazz and Lakers duke it out in the 4/5 scrum.
Vegas set some over-unders on NBA season win totals Sunday.
— ESPN (@espn) August 6, 2018
Oddsmakers have the Lakers pegged as a playoff team, with the Spurs out. https://t.co/Vvz6i8MURm pic.twitter.com/60ga2k2pIS
While it’s important to note that these numbers are more about driving equal betting action than predicting what’s to come, it behooves sportsbooks to get as close as possible to the actual total so they accomplish that goal.
In either case, the trend of oddsmakers selling the Jazz short clearly continues. Last season, the opening over/under for Utah was 40.5. Ahead of the 2016-17 campaign, they were a bit more optimistic, setting the line at 47.5, but the Jazz still outperformed predictions, finishing 51-31 on the year.
An injury-ravaged Jazz team fell a couple wins shy of their opening number the previous year, but crushed the line in 2014-15 by 13 wins (38 wins on an over/under around 25).
I’ll stop short of saying they’ll perform a similar feat next season, but the Jazz should surpass 48.5 with ease. Despite multiple catastrophic injuries, one of the most difficult schedules in the Association, the first-half struggles of Ricky Rubio and Rodney Hood running himself out of town, the Jazz won 48 games last season.
With a topflight defense, roster continuity and expected internal improvement from star guard Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale and others, anything less than 50 wins in ’18-19 would be a shocker.
So, the next time you make the trip to Sin City, one of the many online betting portals or your local bookmaker, do yourself a favor — take the over on the Jazz.
It’s an easy double-up if ever there was one.