Utah Jazz ’18-19 Best/Worst Case Scenario Series: Royce O’Neale

Royce O’Neale proved his worth in statement fashion last season and will look to further his impact even more in his second year with the Utah Jazz.

In the recent piece I wrote about Donovan Mitchell‘s best and worst case scenarios for 2018-19, I was quick to point out that when I analyzed his high end last summer, I completely underestimated him. Though I rightly identified him as receiving NBA All-Rookie Honors, I called him a mere dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate, when in reality, he was one of the frontrunners.

But if I was a little off on Donovan Mitchell’s best case scenario, I was REALLY off on Royce O’Neale‘s. In essence, I projected that his ceiling would pretty much be just making the team (that was still in doubt at the time) and if he got lucky, perhaps contribute occasionally from there.

Instead, not only did O’Neale make the team, but he became a major contributor for the Jazz on both ends of the floor, especially on defense. He was a solid part of their rotation by regular season’s end and even started in the second round of the playoffs due to Ricky Rubio‘s injury.

It was quite the climb for the undrafted rookie out of Baylor who completely blew all expectations out of the water. However, by so doing, he’s also set the bar much higher for 2018-19 and will aim to truly evolve into a special player for the Jazz.

Best Case Scenario

Royce O’Neale’s best case scenario in my mind is that he becomes a staple of the Jazz second unit and solidifies himself as one of the league’s rare and invaluable 3-and-D players. He certainly already has the “D” part down, and he was a solid 3-point shooter in college. However, in his first year with the Jazz he shot just 35.6 percent from deep.

That’s a respectable figure, to be sure, but not quite exactly where he has to be in order to become the 3-and-D guy the Jazz need. If Royce can up that to even a solid 38 percent, he’s going to be an absolute force to be reckoned with for Utah on both ends of the floor.

Over the course of last season, O’Neale averaged just 16.7 minutes per game. However, during the final three months of the season, he averaged 22.1. In the playoff series against Houston, he logged a whopping 30 minutes per contest.

In O’Neale’s best case scenario, he becomes accustomed to playing right around 25 minutes or more per night and making the absolute most of those opportunities as a defensive and shooting ace. He does so well in that capacity as an off-the-bench performer for the Jazz, that he finds himself in the running for either Sixth Man of the Year or the Most Improved Player Award.

Those are illustrious targets, to be sure, and for Royce O’Neale to ultimately be worthy of such recognition is probably a long-shot. However, based on what he showed us to close out last season and on what he clearly can still develop into, those awards are certainly within the range of his absolute ceiling.

As I said earlier, he’s one that blew expectations out of the water last season, who’s to say he can’t do it again?

Worst Case Scenario

It would be hard to imagine a circumstance where O’Neale shockingly loses his defensive prowess overnight, so the Jazz are probably set there. However, in his worst case scenario, O’Neale would find his production from behind the arc dipping immensely.

O’Neale earned court time because of his relentless presence on the defensive end, but he managed to stay on the court because he was serviceable offensively as well. However, if he can’t continue to improve in that respect, he’ll likely see his minutes dwindle and perhaps lose a spot in the rotation entirely.

He could also find further obstacles in a healthy Dante Exum and in Alec Burks if he can somehow maintain his playoff performances from this past season and crack back into the regular rotation. If O’Neale stumbles at all, he could see his minutes swallowed up by either or both of those guys, as well as potentially by Jazz draft selection Grayson Allen.

Allen is good defensively (though likely not as good as Royce) and could possibly be a better deep-ball threat. In other words, there will be no shortage of competition for O’Neale to have to continue to prove himself. In his worst case scenario, he would get buried on the bench behind Utah’s exceptional guard depth.

Next: Utah Jazz ’18-19 Best/Worst Case Scenario Series: Donovan Mitchell

While Quin Snyder will undoubtedly reward the players that are most deserving, I have a hard time seeing Royce falling out of the lineup after what he was able to do last season. While he probably won’t reach the illustrious heights described in his best case scenario, I doubt we’ll see him slide quite so far as to stumble beneath the likes of Burks or Allen.

If I had to guess, I’d predict we see a slight bump in production and effectiveness from O’Neale, causing him to land in the middle of these two extremes but certainly slightly closer to his best case scenario.