Utah Jazz ’18-19 Best/Worst Case Scenario Series: Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell’s phenomenal first season with the Utah Jazz has created high expectations for him. But if anyone can achieve them, he can.

Last summer, I took the time to dive into each player on the Utah Jazz roster and analyze what their outlook for the upcoming season looked like. Like any sport, the NBA is a game of unknowns, so while players may have a certain potential, there’s simply no guessing whether they’ll exceed it, miss it, or land somewhere in between.

In other words, every player has a best case scenario and a worst case scenario that varies dramatically based on health, development, opportunity and a number of other factors.

Predicting both sides of the spectrum was a fun exercise a year ago, so I’ve decided to do it once again in preparation for the 2018-19 season. And who better to start with than first-year standout Donovan Mitchell?

In my analysis of Mitchell from last summer, for his best case I had him earning NBA All-Rookie Honors and becoming a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate. I’d say he was a little more than just a dark horse, considering that many felt that he indeed deserved the nod. The fact that Donovan out-performed even my ‘best case scenario’ prediction for him just goes to show how truly special he was in his rookie season.

But can he match that effectiveness in year two? Let’s look at both ends of his potential spectrum, shall we?

Best Case Scenario

Considering that Mitchell blew my expectations out of the water last year, I’m going to assume that he’ll be capable of doing so once again this year. As a result, I’ll be raising the bar for his best case scenario. This time, it’s going to be truly difficult for him to reach, but he’s certainly proven capable of defying expectations and odds.

If Mitchell has a phenomenal offseason and can make the kind of strides that he took throughout the season last year, there’s almost no limit to what he can become even as just a second-year player. Ideally, he’ll raise his efficiency significantly which will help improve nearly every other aspect of his game. If his decision making gets a little crisper as well, then Donovan could very well solidify himself as a bona fide star this upcoming season.

And, to me, that’s exactly what his best case scenario looks like – Donovan Mitchell qualifying for the All-Star Game. Considering how deep the West is and how seemingly impossible it would be for a Jazz player to win the All-Star vote, Mitchell would almost assuredly be a reserve. But an All-Star nod is a nod nonetheless and, in a lot of ways, the coaches’ selections are more deserving of respect anyway.

For Mitchell to become an All-Star in the loaded West, he’ll have to reach his best case scenario mark in several different categories. Namely, raise his shooting percentages to right around 45 percent from the field and 36-38 percent from deep.

He’ll also need to up his scoring to between 23 and 25 points per game while raising his assists (ideally to right around the five per game mark or more) and continue to be solid defensively by maintaining his 1.5 steals per game mark from last season and becoming more daunting on the perimeter. Mitchell’s year two ceiling will likely be hitting those numbers. And if he does so, the All-Star selection should follow.

Lastly, to be named an All-Star, Mitchell will likely need to help lead the Jazz to a top-four seed in the West by the time All-Star teams are decided. If all this comes together, it won’t only be the best case for Mitchell personally, but his performance could very well lead to a best case scenario for his Jazz team as a whole.

Worst Case Scenario

In short, the worst case scenario for Donovan Mitchell would be a sophomore slump. Thankfully, due to his incredible drive and work ethic, I simply don’t see this happening, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t a possibility.

Teams will be game planning for Mitchell all season long and he’ll no longer be anything close to a surprise. If he’s unable to react or adapt to that, we could very well see a decrease in efficiency and scoring. If his first year was at all an anomaly, then it’s feasible to believe that he won’t be able to match that production in year two.

Seeing his numbers go down in any sort of way rather than continue on the upwards trajectory one would expect for a young and developing player would essentially be the worst possible route for Donovan.

Fortunately, as I said, I don’t see that happening. However, even if Mitchell continues at right around his same production from last year, though it wouldn’t be the worst possible outcome, I’m pretty certain most would still view it as a disappointment. Mitchell was superb in year one, but he also raised the expectations for himself to not simply stay where he was at, but instead continue to improve.

If he’s unable to do so, then his 2018-19 campaign may feel like a bit of a let down and concerns about his future may begin to arise.

Next: Utah Jazz: Building my ultimate Jazz BIG3 3-on-3 squad

But no one seems to understand the dangers of complacency as much as Donovan Mitchell himself. He as much as anyone is determined to elevate his game and improve. With that kind of confidence in his game and dedication to his craft, it would be shocking to me to see Mitchell do anything but get better.

The best case that I’ve set for him may very well be too high. And that’s completely OK! So long as Mitchell continues to take strides in the right direction, it will be a great sign. Then again, I thought my best case was pretty high for him last year, yet he certainly managed to surpass even that.

Seeing whether or not he’s able to do so once again will be one of the most exhilarating aspects of the 2018-19 season.