Despite concerns about his size, Aaron Holiday could round into becoming a solid NBA player and may very well be available when the Utah Jazz select at No. 21 overall.
UCLA product Aaron Holiday is set to join his brothers in the NBA on Thursday night and could very well be in the draft range of the Utah Jazz. While he has shown several traits indicative of a useful NBA player, there are definitely some concerns as well. Let’s take a closer look at his strengths and weaknesses through a few lenses and see what kind of prospect we really have on our hands here:
Physical
Probably the most notable thing about Holiday when looking at his measurables is that he’s a bit undersized. He’s right around six feet tall in shoes and while he is solidly built for his frame at 185 pounds, he is sure to get overpowered on a nightly basis in the NBA.
The saving grace here is his wingspan – 6’7″ and change – that he put to good use in his years at UCLA. Holiday was constantly harassing opposing guards, generating fast break chances by getting into passing lanes as well as just picking the ball straight from unsuspecting opponents.
Holiday is also able to make up for his lack of size utilizing his incredible quickness. His quickness was on display at the combine and it showed up on the tape as well. Holiday was effective creating space on the break and he showed equal ability slicing through the lane in half court sets as well.
Overall, with all the switching going on in the NBA now, Holiday’s size is inevitably going to be a problem on the defensive end. However between his speed, wingspan and effort level, he appears to have as good a chance as anyone to overcome those issues and become a successful NBA guard. I’d say he will grade out neutral to slightly above average when looking at his athleticism, measurables, etc.
Play Style
The first, most obvious thing I noticed about Aaron Holiday when watching tape was that the dude can score from everywhere. Fast break, through traffic, pull up shots, acrobatic layups, you name it. He’s going to come into the NBA as a well-rounded scorer complete with 3-point range that should translate right away.
My favorite part of his game is how he operates in the lane, either coming off a screen or working one-on-one. Holiday has a lot of subtle craftiness to this part of his game that can be easily overlooked: he keeps defenders on his hip coming off a screen, waiting for the defense to commit. He shows a number of head fakes, hesitation moves and step backs that are vital for undersized players to create space down low.
You can see his natural feel for the game here as well. Holiday is patient and can read a defense well from the lane, consistently finding open teammates or creating his own shot under the basket.
All of this offensive dynamism comes at a cost though. Holiday turns the ball over a lot, sporting a roughly 5/4 assist to turnover ratio in his last year at UCLA. For a guy who is probably a full time point guard in the NBA, this is going to need to dramatically improve. The turnovers came from all over the place, but a common theme was that Holiday frequently plays too fast and is reckless at times.
Hopefully this is something that can be ironed out with some NBA coaching and veteran leadership, as improving on this area could make Holiday a very fun offensive player.
I mentioned some of his defensive ability earlier, but I’ll note here that despite his size I don’t think Holiday will be all that bad of a defender. His wingspan definitely helps cover up some warts, but I think the bigger factor here is his effort level.
He does occasionally die on screens, but overall he puts forth great effort and is certainly quick enough to recover when he gets beat. I think he’ll surprise whatever team drafts him in this area and if he can deliver on my prediction, it could very well define what kind of career he winds up having.
NBA Fit
Holiday’s ready-to-go scoring ability and NBA 3-point range are what currently defines him as a prospect and are going to be huge for him right away. NBA teams not located in the Bay Area are constantly starved for more shooting, so this is how he is initially going to get minutes.
Despite some stiff shooting mechanics, he shot north of 40 percent from deep on good volume and over 80 percent from the line, both of which are strong indicators he will be able to knock down shots at the next level.
Fortunately, Holiday’s limitations will partially be masked by his current draft ranking. He is currently slated to go in the mid to late first round, which means he will probably start his career as a quality backup on a good team such as potentially the Utah Jazz who own the 21st pick overall. Learning under a starting point guard should help his turnover issues and opposing second units likely won’t be able to capitalize as much on his size.
In spite of this size, his length will also be something that translates right away. Above average wingspans are another one of those hot commodities across the league and should allow Holiday to at least be able to switch across the perimeter positions without much issue.
Holiday also used that length to post an above average steal rate in college, which is one of the few consistent indicators of a plus defender that will translate to the NBA.
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Overall, given his game and physical ability, I think Holiday’s best fit is the one I just mentioned: quality backup on a good team. He could very likely be a starter in the NBA as well, especially if he reaches his ceiling but I don’t see him as a starting point guard on a Conference Finals level team. I think he sees the most success in the NBA as a stud backup point making deep playoff runs.
The 2018 NBA Draft is nearly approaching as it will commence on Thursday at 5:00 PM MT and the Utah Jazz will be on the clock at No. 21 before we know it.