With major questions surrounding the rest of the division, could a focus on cap flexibility and internal development be the best way for the Utah Jazz to take over the Northwest?
You could make a pretty strong argument that, top to bottom, the Northwest Division was the strongest in the NBA this season. They sent four teams to the playoffs and all five finished above .500 in the regular season. However, if you look even a year or two out there’s a very real chance this landscape looks vastly different.
Despite the strong showing this year, there is some rot at the foundation. The Northwest Division is littered with gross overpays, disgruntled stars and teams asking themselves very hard questions about their rosters and identities.
This is all good news for Utah Jazz fans — because basically none of it applies to their team.
A scan of the cap sheets across the division shows that the Jazz are very well positioned compared to their rivals. Outside of their impending Derrick Favors decision, the Jazz are in for a relatively drama-free couple of offseasons.
They aren’t swimming in cap space, but they have the flexibility to get it if needed. They have Rudy Gobert locked up and Donovan Mitchell on a rookie contract. They have a strong supporting cast without any egregious contracts among them, as well as all of their future draft picks (and then some).
Finally, the Jazz possess a strong identity that is supported from the top down and shows on the floor. They lead with defense, play methodically and execute well. That side of team building is obviously less fun to talk about, but is critically important; especially as we look at a few of their division rivals.
On that note — let’s examine the rest of the Northwest and see how easy it could be for the Jazz to take over the division by simply developing their talent and maintaining their cap flexibility.
Oklahoma City Thunder
You could write an entire offseason saga about the situation the Thunder have found themselves in. But since it has been well documented basically from the moment Carmelo Anthony put pen to paper, I’m going to keep this one brief and hit the high notes.
First, the Thunder are going to be over the cap regardless of what Paul George decides to do. Assuming Carmelo opts into the final year of his deal OKC is going to pay the combination of Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, Carmelo and Andre Roberson just under $100 million for the 2018-19 season.
Considering the cap will land somewhere between $101 and $108 million next year and NBA rosters typically run around 13 deep, this is obviously a problem for the Thunder. Oklahoma City is not a big market, and you’d have to figure ownership would only be willing to pay the luxury tax for a proven winner. This roster is arguably (probably?) not that.
When you add in the crippling effect that Russ’ deal is going to have on their books ($46 million in the final year!) and their lack of a first round pick this year, it’s hard to imagine the Thunder competing with the Jazz without a major overhaul to their roster.
Portland Trail Blazers
Probably the next most discussed offseason situation of the division, and understandably so as it is probably the next most toxic. The Trail Blazers fell victim to the cap spike of 2016, handing out questionable deals to Meyers Leonard and Evan Turner, and matching the Brooklyn Nets’ outlandish offer sheet to Allen Crabbe. Now the cap has leveled off, leaving the Blazers tight on money.
You can understand Portland’s enthusiasm though. A small or mid-market team that historically struggles to land free agents is suddenly gifted max level cap room and goes nuts. The Orlando Magic did the same, and several more would have if anyone would have taken their money.
Unfortunately, Portland spent on the wrong guys and that is going to leave them precious little wiggle room to improve the roster. Portland is running into a similar problem as the Toronto Raptors, where a guard-focused roster that can’t defend at an elite level struggles to advance in the playoffs.
Only Portland is trying this in the Western Conference, and their sweep defeat to the New Orleans Pelicans shows they might be farther away than previously thought. The Trail Blazers desperately need to move money off their books; but if they need to surrender future assets to do that makes them less able to capitalize on their new-found breathing room.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is a young, talented team with a strong veteran leader and a good coach. So what’s the problem, right? The T-Wolves’ issues can basically all be traced back to defense. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns profile as elite defenders and KAT at least puts up gaudy statistics, but for whatever reason it just doesn’t come together on the court like you’d think.
Importing Tom Thibodeau and, later, Jimmy Butler from Chicago hasn’t been the quick fix they were hoping for, and it’s getting closer to decision-making time on this core. Wiggins is already locked up on a big extension, which isn’t looking good so far, and Towns is due his max deal in 2019.
Butler and Jeff Teague both have player options for 2019 as well, and assuming both are still around at that point this could really put Minnesota in a bind. There’s no way Minnesota can afford to pay all of these guys top dollar, and this is without mentioning Gorgui Dieng’s eight-figure cap hit.
Teague has emerged as the most likely candidate to be moved, but he also provides less cap relief than Wiggins or Dieng would. It’s also fair to wonder what the market for either Wiggins or Dieng would be at this point, but it’s not hard to see a team talking themselves into Wiggins.
It will almost certainly take a future asset (read: first-round pick) to get someone to take Dieng, could the same go for Wiggins in a tight market? If Wiggins can’t improve into the elite two-way player his contract implies he is Minnesota is going to have some very difficult decisions on their hands.
Denver Nuggets
In my mind, Denver poses the biggest long-term threat to the Jazz’ quest for Northwest supremacy. They have a lot of money committed next year but most of those contracts fall off for the 2019 season, which is conveniently when Nikola Jokic needs a very large raise.
The problem with all that money rolling off the books is that those contracts represent talent that Denver is going to need to replace. When you look at the Nuggets’ new core of Jokic, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray, only one of them is locked up (Harris), while Jokic and Murray are both working on rookie deals.
At this point Jokic is a no-brainer for a max deal when his time comes, and if Murray can continue the trajectory he set this year he’s in line for a big payday too. Planning around those huge deals is going to be key for Denver, and any misstep there could cost them a key piece to a championship run.
So what stands in the way? To me, it’s defense (again) and the identity of the roster. First, all three of their new core profile as average defenders at best. None of them seem like real defensive liabilities that will need to be accounted for, but together with the rest of their roster the results were ugly at times (26th in defensive rating this year).
The Nuggets were an elite offensive team this year, so they need to make sure they strike a fine balance in adding defensive pieces that will be able to gel with their studs. If they can just get to league average on defense, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
The other thing that sticks with me about the Nuggets is the identity of the team. They only have seven guys under contract for 2019, four of those being club options and I only see them keeping one (Murray). So this team is likely going to look drastically different in a couple of years.
We know they like to run the offense through Jokic, and it looks like they have an ideal back court pairing with a couple of sharpshooters to put around him. However they seemed to stray from their offense at times during the season. With teams having a full season of film on this wacky offense and the inevitable roster turnover coming, will Denver be able to stick with their principles and build a strong identity around their core?
Wrapping Up
To be clear, I’m not trying to say the Jazz should twiddle their thumbs for two years and all will be rosy. I do think this is a somewhat unique position though. Several of their division rivals have made recent bets that haven’t panned out, and it’s only a matter of time before the salary cap picks them apart or forces drastic change.
When that’s coupled with the general dearth of cap space league wide you get a situation where maintaining cap flexibility, most notably through adding cost controlled assets via the draft is king.
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Drafting well, developing talent and strategically using free agency is a routine Utah has been nailing for years. If they can stay the course and not get tempted by the quick fix, the future could be very bright for this iteration of the Jazz.