Is it even feasible to think the Utah Jazz can win Game 4?

With Ricky Rubio likely out for Game 4 against the Houston Rockets on Sunday, is it even feasible to think the Utah Jazz can win after such a demoralizing loss in Game 3?

After Friday night’s meltdown at home against the Houston Rockets, it’s strange to think that the Utah Jazz actually won Game 2 on the road. Going from a convincing road win to an absolute collapse at home leads to several questions.

What was the formula for the win in Game 2? Why did this formula completely fall apart in Game 3? And finally, what can Jazz fans hope for in Game 4?

As a side note, while I acknowledge the fact that the Rockets won Game 1, I am largely going to ignore stats from that game and focus exclusively on Games 2 and 3. The Jazz had significantly less rest for Game 1 than the Rockets. Combine this with the fact that both teams were feeling each other out in that game and had yet to make any significant adjustments and I am led to think that Games 2 and 3 are more representative of the series as a whole.

To start off, while the Jazz have struggled with turnovers throughout this series, that does not really seem to be the reason for the blowout in Game 3. In their Game 2 win, the Jazz had 16 turnovers compared to the Rockets’ seven. Similarly, in Game 3, the Jazz once again had 16 turnovers compared to the Rockets’ eight.

The turnover differential actually improved from Game 2 to Game 3 by one in the Jazz’s favor which makes it seem unlikely turnovers were the cause of Utah’s misfortune on Friday. 16 turnovers is relatively high, however. Certainly, cutting that down in Game 4 would be beneficial for Utah and help their chances of evening the series.

Believe it or not, Utah actually outrebounded Houston 43-41 in the Game 3 blowout. Compare this to Houston outrebounding Utah 50-48 in Utah’s win in Game 2 and things get confusing. It appears that total rebounds do not really make a difference in who ultimately won the game unless we try to say that outrebounding your opponent actually causes you to lose (which does not make any logical sense).

Really, it seems as though Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert are doing relatively well against Clint Capela when it comes to grabbing boards. Rebounding is not the issue.

So if extra possessions (rebounds and turnovers) weren’t the deciding factor then what was? In short, shooting percentage — both overall and from distance.

Utah won Game 2 largely because they were able to hold the Rockets to 40 percent shooting from the field (38-of-95 overall) and an abysmal 27 percent from 3-point range (10-of-37). Combine this terrible shooting night from the Rockets with Utah’s fantastic shooting night — percent from the field (43-of-84) and 46.9 percent from three (15-of-32) — and it becomes clear that shooting was the deciding factor in the game.

Now let’s juxtapose these shooting figures with those of Game 3 and see if we can spot a pattern. In Game 3 the Rockets shot relatively poorly from distance, hitting 30.6 percent (11-of-36) but shot significantly better than the Jazz overall, making 48.8 percent (42-of-88). The Jazz shot 41.7 percent from the field (35-of-84).

41.7 percent is really close to the 40 percent shooting the Rockets exhibited in their Game 2 loss. While the Jazz did end up shooting the three better than the Rockets in Game 3 (37.9 percent), this came on significantly less volume — 29 attempts for the Jazz vs. 36 attempts for the Rockets.

As simple as it is, overall shooting percentage seems to be the deciding factor in this series. Including Game 1, the team that has ended up winning the game had a higher effective field goal percentage (see chart below).

Live by the effective field goal percentage, die by the effective field goal percentage. As ever, it’s a make or miss league.

The formula for winning is very simple: the Jazz must shoot the ball effectively while forcing the Rockets to shoot poorly. The Jazz must have both of these for Game 4, not one or the other.

So to answer the ultimate question — yes, it is feasible for the Jazz to win Game 4. It will largely come down to how well the Jazz can shoot the ball and how well they defend the Rockets. Due to this increased emphasis on shooting, it’s feasible we could see Jae Crowder start to provide more shooting. This is just one of many adjustments Jazz coach Quin Snyder may make.

Next: Royce O'Neale was kind of amazing in Game 3

Overall, Jazz fans should be excited to see the response the Jazz have in store for them.