Utah Jazz: Keys to a series win over the Houston Rockets

The Utah Jazz defeated OKC in the first round of the playoffs, but face a much tougher challenge in the Western Conference Semfinals against the Houston Rockets.

For the second consecutive season, the Utah Jazz have managed to fight their way out of the first round of the playoffs to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Semifinals. However, unlike last year, this time around there’s a new number one seed in town, the Houston Rockets, who the Jazz will face off against in the second round.

The Houston Rockets dominated the regular season, finishing with a record of 65-17 which saw them in control of the top seed in the West for essentially the entirety of the year. Although the Oklahoma City Thunder were a worthy challenger for the Jazz in the first round, the Houston Rockets have so many more attributes that make them a much more formidable foe.

From a fast-paced and often times devastating three-point attack, to a superstar in James Harden, to a much-improved defense and a well-rounded first and second unit, the Jazz will have to play nearly seamless basketball if they are to have any hope of toppling a daunting Rockets squad. They failed to do so in the regular season and were defeated all four times that these two teams faced off.

On the bright side, though, three of those four contests came in November and December, meaning that, much like was stated several times leading up to the series against the Thunder, the Utah team that Houston was most accustomed to seeing isn’t the one they’ll be facing in the second round of the playoffs.

The Jazz have improved drastically since then as they clearly showed in defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round despite losing to them 3-1 in the regular season. With that being the case, the Jazz could actually turn out to be dangerous if they can just find success in these three key areas.

Mitchell needs to keep playing well, but needs help on offense, too

Donovan Mitchell was absolutely riveting in Utah’s first round series against OKC. Just as he did in the regular season, he led his team in scoring, but at an even higher clip of 28.5 points per game. He also shot 46.2 percent from the field and a solid 36.4 percent from deep while pulling down a shocking 7.2 rebounds per game and notching nearly three assists.

If the Jazz are to have any hope of keeping up with Houston, they’ll need Donovan to continue to produce at that level, if not even higher. I’m confident that Utah’s defense will be able to disrupt the Rockets and at least shake them out of their typical groove. But even so, Houston has so much firepower that it is going to be a real struggle for the Jazz to keep pace offensively even if their defense is clicking.

That’s especially true considering that Ricky Rubio is set to miss at least Game 1 of the series and likely much longer as he deals with a hamstring injury that held him out of most of Game 6 of the first round. When Rubio left Game 6 against OKC with the hamstring issue, Utah’s offense instantly sputtered to a dangerous degree as they worked to adapt to his absence.

If the Jazz undergo similar droughts against the prolific offense of the Houston Rockets, they’ll be buried before they even get a chance to get back into the game.

With such being the case, while it will be important for Mitchell to continue with his offensive barrage, he’s going to need help on offense in the form of several of his teammates stepping up. Prior to the hamstring injury, Ricky Rubio was Utah’s second-leading scorer through the first five games of the series. With him out of commission, offensive contributions from the other guys will be even more important.

One of the first to come to mind is Joe Ingles who averaged 14.2 points per contest in the first round. When his three-point shot is dropping, he’s one of Utah’s most dangerous assets and that will absolutely need to be the case in this upcoming series. Big men Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors need to continue to be active as well. And last of all, the Jazz could use a significantly better effort from their bench.

Jae Crowder was inefficient and often made poor decisions on offense against OKC. If he’s able to rectify those issues and fill the sixth man role as effectively as he did during the regular season, it will provide a major lift for the Jazz who are in need of another reliable scorer alongside Donovan.

Regardless of who it is, or if the individual or individuals switch every game, the fact remains that Mitchell needs help on offense so that the Jazz can generate enough points to keep pace with the Rockets who were second in the league in both points per game and offensive rating during the regular season.

Win the three-point battle on both ends

Whenever you think about the Houston Rockets, one of the first things that probably comes to mind is how deadly they can be from three. However, while that certainly can be the case, it’s also somewhat of a skewed perception.

The perception exists because the Rockets both attempted and made the most three-pointers of any team during the regular season by a considerable margin. They put up an average of 42.3 threes per game (the second highest mark was Brooklyn’s 35.7) and made an average of 15.3 per contest (again, Brooklyn was second at 12.7).

In other words, the Rockets put up threes by the bunches and are anything but trigger shy. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are particularly accurate. For the season, they shot just 36.2 percent from deep as a team. That’s not a bad mark by any means, but it was 14th in the league and worse than the average of the Utah Jazz.

So far in the playoffs, the Rockets have once again led in both makes and attempts, upping their attempts to a whopping 43.4 per contest. Yet in spite of that increase, their makes per game have actually gone down to 15.0, meaning their three-point efficiency has decreased as well to a lackluster 34.6 percent. Once again, Utah has the edge in that regard in the playoffs thus far.

Even if the Jazz can force the Rockets into tough shots from three, they’re likely still going to heave them. However, challenging them from deep and bringing their efficiency down will be the key to defeating them. The Rockets can fall into a tendency to live or die by the three and with how many they take, usually they find a way to live. But if they get too trigger happy and start making bad decisions with their shots, the Jazz could force the opposite.

On the defensive end of the floor, the Rockets were pretty stingy in their perimeter defense in the regular season whereas the Jazz weren’t so much. Houston held teams to just 35.1 percent shooting from deep, the seventh best mark in the NBA, while the Jazz allowed teams to shoot 36.5 percent, good for 17th in the NBA.

The Jazz have remained pretty consistent at that mark during the playoffs as they allowed the Thunder to shoot 36.4 percent from deep, just a tenth of a percentage point lower than in the regular season.

The Rockets, meanwhile, have undergone a major reversal in their perimeter defense thus far. They allowed the Minnesota Timberwolves to shoot 41.3 percent from deep in the first round, the worst mark allowed in any postseason series up to this point. That’s pretty surprising, especially when considering that in the regular season, the Timberwolves shot just 35.7 percent from behind the arc, which was 19th in the league.

In fairness, the Thunder were one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the NBA during the regular season, so Utah likely should have been able to hold them to a less efficient mark, but still, going up against two bad three-point shooting teams, Utah fared better than Houston defending the perimeter.

If the Rockets get lackadaisical and continue their lackluster coverage on the perimeter in the second round, the Jazz absolutely need to take advantage. I can almost guarantee that the Rockets will continue to put up more threes than the Jazz per game. However, if Utah can blow them out of the water in terms of efficiency by executing well, taking advantage of potential lackluster perimeter D, and enforcing their will at the three-point line on defense, we could see a huge swing in momentum in Utah’s favor.

Contain Harden, but don’t forget about the others

As the frontrunner for the 2017-18 NBA MVP Award, there’s no denying that James Harden simply isn’t a player to be trifled with. While some of his antics and play style are considered controversial by many, he’s still unquestionably an exceptional player that can catch fire and absolutely punish opponents.

The Jazz witnessed that first hand in the regular season when he dropped his second highest output of the season of 56 points on a mind-blowing 19-of-25 shooting performance back in early November. When Harden gets like that, he’s pretty much unstoppable.

As such, the Jazz will have to do everything they can to limit his airspace, but also avoid fouling. That’s much easier said than done and a conundrum that Harden loves to exploit. Much like with Russell Westbrook, who the Jazz faced in the first round, Harden is going to find a way to get his points. After all, he’s averaging 29 points per game in the playoffs thus far. But if the Jazz can make him inefficient in getting to those points, it will be a big win for them.

Unfortunately, unlike what tends to be the case for most star players, James Harden isn’t necessarily the ‘head of the snake’ for the Rockets. In other words, just because you stop him doesn’t mean you’ll be able to stymie the rest of his squad. For a perfect example, look no further than Game 2 of Houston’s first-round series. Harden went a horrific 2-of-18 from the field that included going just 1-of-10 from deep. But at the end of the day, his team still won.

That’s what happens when you have a fellow superstar in Chris Paul, Houston’s second leading scorer, sixth man and three-point shooting extraordinaire Eric Gordon, a veteran stud in Trevor Ariza, a special big man in Clint Capela and gutsy defenders such as P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute, not to mention the rest of their exceptional role players.

So while slowing Harden is vital, he can’t be the only focus. Stopping Houston truly is a full-out team effort that requires both discipline on defense and production on offense. I’m far more confident in the former coming together for Utah than the latter, but if either one falters, there will simply be no stopping the top-seeded Houston Rockets.

Prediction

To me, the major difference between the Thunder who Utah faced in the first round and the Rockets who they’ll go on to battle in round two is that OKC has been erratic and inconsistent all year long whereas Houston has been about as solid and steady as they come. As such, for Utah to defeat the Rockets they’ll need to play nearly flawless basketball.

Unfortunately, especially with Ricky Rubio sidelined with the hamstring injury, I’m not sure that they’re capable of that. He has such an impact on making sure the offense is flowing and is an effective irritant on defense. Both of those traits will be severely missed while he recovers.

Rubio likely won’t be back until Game 4 or 5 at the earliest based on initial timelines. If the Jazz are able to steal a game, then his return could perhaps propel them to a series victory. If they’re down 3-0 or even 3-1 by the time he returns, though, it will likely be too little, too late.

Rubio’s availability aside, though, the Jazz would be in for a challenge no matter what. The Rockets outmatched them (as well as almost every other team in the NBA) during the regular season and could very well prove to be too much of a challenge in postseason play as well. If Utah can’t muster enough offense or if the threes start raining down for the Clutch City crew, the Jazz will likely find themselves overwhelmed.

I personally think the Jazz will take the fight to Houston and make it a tough series for them, but ultimately, the more talented, experienced and steady Rockets will arise victorious.

My Prediction: Rockets in 5

Next: Utah Jazz survived Game 6, but will need Ricky Rubio for series vs. Houston

Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz tips off on Sunday afternoon at 1:30 PM MT.