Utah Jazz survived Game 6, but will need Ricky Rubio for series vs. Houston

The Utah Jazz survived Game 6 against OKC without Ricky Rubio, but with his hamstring injury expected to keep him out of Game 1, Utah will likely be hard-pressed to continue that trend against a much more talented Houston team.

The Utah Jazz‘s first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder was about as much of an emotional roller coaster as I can remember in a Jazz postseason series. After losing Game 1, several Jazz fans were worried about Utah’s chances. After all Paul George had gone off to punish the Jazz and many wondered if OKC’s star power would prove to be too much.

Then, all of a sudden the Jazz bounced back by winning three straight contests beginning with a massive road victory in Oklahoma City for Game 2. Donovan Mitchell was brilliant in each contest. Ricky Rubio was stunning throughout, particularly in Game 3 as he logged a triple-double. Several other players stepped up as well and it appeared that Utah had the series in the bag as they held a commanding 3-1 lead.

It appeared to be even more in the bag about five minutes into the third quarter of Game 5 as the Jazz had come out guns blazing to go up by 25 points. Jazz fans were certainly riding an ultimate high at this point. However, then Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors got into foul trouble, the Jazz offense imploded and all of a sudden the Thunder came storming back to earn the victory.

It was the absolute low of the series as the roller coaster of emotions came crashing down.

Then there was Game 6, which was a microcosm of the series all by itself. The Thunder got way up in the first half, a fact that wasn’t helped by Ricky Rubio having to leave the game with a hamstring injury. From there, somehow the Jazz were able to tie it up before the half, then Donovan Mitchell exploded in the second half to help Utah get ahead and hold on to win the game.

Even without their starting point guard extraordinaire, who had been so good to close out the regular season and in each of the first five games of the playoffs, the Jazz survived against OKC and have now advanced to the second round against the Houston Rockets.

However, as the top seed in the Western Conference, the Rockets are no pushovers. While the Thunder were erratic and inconsistent all season long, Houston truly has been a model of consistency. From a high-octane offense, incredible three-point shooting, solid defense that improved drastically from last season, a pair of superstars in James Harden and Chris Paul and a stellar bunch of role players and reserves, this is not a team to be trifled with.

The Jazz would be hard-pressed to beat them at full strength. If Ricky Rubio isn’t able to go, their chances look even more grim. And, unfortunately, based on a recent report from the Salt Lake Tribune, it appears that such will be exactly the case. Rubio is set to miss Game 1 on Sunday due to the hamstring injury he sustained on Friday and could very well miss a few weeks, which would potentially have him out for the entirety of the series.

This does not bode well whatsoever for the Jazz.

Not only did Rubio put up an incredible stat line in the first five games of his first ever playoff series, averaging 16.8 points (second-best on the team), 8.6 rebounds (second-best on the team) and 7.8 assists (best on the team), but he consistently made the team better as a whole. As KSL’s Andy Larsen mentioned in his Game 6 post-game Triple Team piece, the Jazz outscored the Thunder by 9.7 points per 100 possessions in the series with Rubio on the court. With him off the court, Utah was outscored by 7.5 points per 100.

When Rubio went down in the first quarter of Game 1, Utah’s offense noticeably sputtered afterwards. Without their floor general executing the offense and getting the team into a rhythm, points were hard to come by. Fortunately, the Jazz were able to lean on their defense to tie the game at 41 at halftime, then rely on Donovan Mitchell taking over in the third quarter to eventually be propelled to victory.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that working out so well against Houston. Yes, Utah’s defense is equipped to give them fits, as they do against pretty much every team in the league. However, the Rockets boast a much more consistent offensive attack and significantly more firepower. The Jazz D will have to do its part, but if the offense goes through droughts like the one it did in the first half of Game 6, it will spell big trouble for the Jazz who likely won’t be able to keep up with the high-scoring Rockets.

And as good as Donovan Mitchell is, the Rockets have plenty of staunch defenders they can throw at him, beginning with Luc Mbah a Moute, who did a solid job of making life difficult for former Jazz star Gordon Hayward last year as a member of the LA Clippers. Not only that, but even though Mitchell continues to blow all expectations for himself out of the water, he is still a rookie after all, and expecting him to run the offense and carry the team every night is a bit rambunctious.

The Jazz are at their best when they are functioning as a team and everyone is contributing, not when they just rely on Mitchell. The Jazz perform best as a team and fill their roles best when Rubio is around to be a facilitator and to generate scoring when need be. After all, he was Utah’s second leading scorer through the first five games of the series and hit plenty of critical shots to push Utah over the edge.

Rubio’s defense on Westbrook was also helpful, and having him around as an extra defender on the likes of Chris Paul and James Harden would be exceptionally important as well. Rubio has solidified himself as a leader of this team as well as one of their most potent assets on both ends of the floor, so in order for the Jazz to have a shot to take out the number one overall seed in the West, they’ll certainly need him in action at some point.

Rubio missed several games during the regular season due to a hamstring injury, so it isn’t all that surprising to learn that he could be out for a while. Ideally, Utah will be able to weather the storm without him then perhaps he could return later in the series (much like when Rudy Gobert went down to injury in Game 1 of the first round last year), but it sounds like that is far from a guarantee.

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In his absence, and if he is indeed unable to go for the entire series, the Jazz will have a huge void on both ends of the floor and others such as Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles will have to step up as the primary players running the offense, while guys like Royce O’Neale and even Alec Burks will need to step up on the defensive end to keep the deadly Rockets in check.

The Jazz are facing an uphill battle as it is, but that climb becomes all the more steep with Rubio sidelined. The lone reassurance is that the Jazz have overcome injury woes before, including in their Game 6 victory, so with or without Rubio, you can be certain that Quin Snyder and Co. will have the squad well-prepared.

Still, although Utah survived Game 6 without their starting point guard, the outlook of doing so against a much more daunting Houston team is pretty bleak.