Utah Jazz: Game 6 isn’t a must-win, but should be viewed that way

The Utah Jazz still have two chances to close out their first-round series, but getting it done at home in Friday’s Game 6 should be an absolute priority.

I know, guys, I know, let me get this out of the way before I even get started. The Utah Jazz won in Game 7 last year on the road against the LA Clippers despite losing in a close-out opportunity in Game 6. Heading back to the Clippers’ home court had several fans feeling anxious that the Jazz had blown their chance to close out the series in what many had viewed as a “must-win” Game 6.

The term “must-win” gets thrown around pretty loosely, when in fact the only true “must-wins” are when facing elimination. For the Oklahoma City Thunder, Game 5 and now Game 6 and a potential Game 7 would all be considered true must-wins. Meanwhile, as the Jazz proved last season, Game 6 is an important opportunity that they should aim to capitalize on, but as much as we may want to paint it as a must-win, it really isn’t.

That said, it should still be absolutely viewed as much. No two seasons are the same and just because Utah overcame in Game 7 on the road last season doesn’t mean it will be as easy this time around. Based on the way this series has gone thus far, Utah truly needs to view Friday night’s contest for what it is — an important chance to close out the series at home and punch their ticket to the next round.

We all know what happened in Game 5. The memories are almost too painful for me to revisit, so I’ll try not to get too caught up in them. But the game taught an important lesson, and if the Jazz hope to reverse their fate from that game and arise victorious in Game 6, they’ll need to play much more like they did in the first half of Game 5 and a lot less like they did in the second half.

That sounds overly simple and obviously foul trouble to both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors severely impacted the Jazz, but here’s the breakdown of what the Jazz need to repair in order to close out the series in Game 6.

First off, we all know that Russell Westbrook and to a lesser, but very real extent, Paul George, went off in the second half. Westbrook finished with 45 points on 17-of-39 (43.6 percent) shooting from the field (yes, a whopping THIRTY-NINE attempts) and 5-of-9 (55.6 percent) from deep.

In the four games prior, Westbrook had gone just 29-of-79 (36.7 percent) from the field and just 3-of-14 (21.4 percent) from deep. Meanwhile, PG added 34 points on 12-of-26 shooting.

The odd thing about Westbrook’s night, though, is that not only did he shoot well above his typical efficiency, but the Jazz were largely forcing him into the kind of shots he tends to struggle with — mid-range pull-ups and 3-point heaves. However, on this occasion, as special players can do with their backs against the wall, Westbrook came through.

He shot 3-of-7 on mid-range shots between 10 and 14 feet, 3-of-5 on mid-range shots between 15 and 19 feet and, again, went 5-of-9 from three. Ironically, his worst percentage came close to the hoop as he finished 5-of-12 from within five feet of the basket.

In other words, largely the Jazz executed well on Westbrook, he just outplayed their game plan by hitting shots that typically aren’t his forte. Of course, having Gobert out of commission let Westbrook gain confidence in getting closer to the basket. Once he had momentum rolling there was really no stopping him.

If the Stifle Tower can stay out of foul trouble this time around, the Jazz should be in good shape in that regard.

To me, the biggest issue wasn’t so much Utah’s half-court set defense, but rather that Westbrook was allowed to play downhill for much of the second half as he netted several points in transition particularly off of missed Jazz shots that allowed him to get into his rhythm. Westbrook is one of the most dangerous downhill players in the league, and by allowing him to start connecting on his shots in that fashion, he was able to almost single-handedly run the Jazz out of the building.

This was a result of the Jazz getting out of their offensive execution. Early in the game, they consistently made the right reads and were able to set their teammates up for good looks, be it from deep or otherwise. However, in the second half, the Thunder adjusted appropriately going with Jerami Grant and Patrick Patterson rather than utilizing Carmelo Anthony and successfully switched everything on defense.

Though the Jazz had handled such a reaction well before, it felt as if a sense of panic set in and the Jazz just completely fell apart. The foul trouble of Favors and Gobert likely impacted Utah just as much on offense as on defense given that neither one was available to challenge OKC’s smaller lineup or clean up the offensive glass as the Jazz may have otherwise liked.

Once this happened, the Jazz fell into the trap of settling for too many long shots and struggled to move the ball effectively as they have during the high points of the rest of the series. Those missed shots not only led to scoring struggles, but the defensive rebounds helped OKC instantly be able to attack the other end. The poor offensive execution truly equated to poor defense.

So while Utah needs to be careful on Westbrook and George and not just hope that they don’t get hot, but also look to take away whatever is working for them, they’ve largely done a good job of holding them in check. On the other end of the floor, the Jazz need to be ready for the switches that the Thunder will throw at them and capitalize on any mismatches that occur.

If the Jazz get their ball movement back up to par and therefore eradicate the issues that arose on both ends of the court in terms of shot selection and being able to set up their half-court defense, I like their chances. However, if the Thunder are able to impose their will defensively as they did in the latter half of Game 5, forcing the Jazz into poor shots while facilitating their transition attack, it could spell doom for this Utah squad.

I’m confident in Quin Snyder’s ability to make adjustments and in his resilient team being able to bounce back and follow his lead to run their game plan effectively. As long as Westbrook and George revert to their norms and the Jazz bigs stay out of foul trouble, the Jazz should be able to defend home court just as they did in Games 3 and 4, and win this contest.

However, I’m also nervous that those requirements won’t be fulfilled. Russell, PG and the OKC crew now have momentum. And especially if Billy Donovan makes the tough choice of holding Melo out during extended sequences, the Thunder may truly have a good shot of topping the Jazz.

If they do so, they would force a Game 7 back in Oklahoma City, which would turn into a true must-win for both teams. And although the Jazz were able to win Game 2 there, considering that Utah was 2-17 all-time in Chesapeake Energy Arena prior to this series, that the Thunder would have every ounce of momentum after storming back to win Game 5 and stealing Game 6, and that they’d have a roaring crowd and star power to support them, I would be less than confident about the Jazz repeating last year’s performance and winning Game 7 on the road.

For that very reason, the Jazz need to view this game as their personal Game 7 and simply take care of business tonight. Game 6 may not be a true “must-win” for the Jazz, but they definitely need to approach it that way.

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I can really see this game going either way depending on how the Jazz adjust and how OKC’s stars play. I feel guilty about how I jinxed the Jazz in Game 5 on a number of occasions, so this time around, I’m going to go with the Thunder riding the momentum they built last game and coming out on top, forcing a Game 7 in OKC.

My Prediction: Thunder 109, Jazz 102

The Jazz and Thunder tip-off tonight at 8:30 PM MT on ESPN.