Utah Jazz: A Ricky Rubio-Dante Exum dilemma is on the horizon

Dante Exum was drafted to be the point guard of the future for the Utah Jazz in 2015, but Ricky Rubio’s play may have changed those plans.

Heading into the 2017-18 season, expectations were high for Dante Exum. He showed flashes of brilliance in the Summer League and during the preseason. It looked like he might even be able to push Ricky Rubio for the starting spot. Fate had other plans, however, as he would dislocate his shoulder during an exhibition bout with the Suns.

The injury would require surgery, and Exum would be out of the lineup for the next six months. This was not the first time that the former No. 5 overall pick had been injured to the point of missing significant time, either. He missed the entirety of his sophomore year after suffering an ACL tear the previous summer.

Now, as the Jazz inch closer to the offseason, major decisions about Exum’s future (and his price tag) loom.

As a restricted free agent, Exum can explore free agency to see what type of offer sheet other teams are willing to tender. The Jazz will then need to decide if they are willing to match, or allow him to walk away.

The wrench in all of this has been the recent play of Ricky Rubio. Nobody could have expected the emergence of Rubio over the second half of the season. As a team, Utah’s astounding turnaround this season began with a victory over the Detroit Pistons on January 24. Rubio hit a late three in that game, that helped seal the deal.

Since that victory, he’s averaged 16 points, 6.1 assist and 5.3 rebounds, while shooting 43.8 percent from 3-point range.  Rubio also added 1.5 steals per game.

That is by far the best stretch of his career.

If the Jazz believe Rubio can maintain this level of play over the course of the next few season, the decision between he and Exum becomes very interesting.

Age and contracts are going to be an important deciding factor. Right now, Exum is only 22 years of age, but his contract is up in the air. Due to his injury history and lack of consistent play, it’s hard to imagine any team comes forward with a contract over $10 million a year. In that scenario, I imagine the Jazz would have to match.

Exum has definitely shown flashes of brilliance. He has an elite first step and top-end speed. He has shown a terrific ability to get to the basket when space is there, too.

Exum does have some real deficiencies that would lead one to believe that Rubio would be a better option. He is not a great shooter for one, and is hesitant to take shots even when open. He also struggles with decision-making, and far too often he commits careless turnovers.

The Jazz will have to decide if they are confident in developing Exum’s shot, and if increased playing time and more experience will yield better decisions on the court.

The other interesting part of this concerns Exum and his desire to stay. If his play begins to improve, he is going to want a larger role and more minutes. Unless the Jazz begin to roll out a Rubio/Mitchell/Exum lineup (which sounds intriguing to me), with Rubio in the fold, his playing time is always going to be limited.

While Rubio also has his areas of opportunity, he’s much more of a finished product. He’s currently in the midst of leading the Jazz to a Round 1 victory over the Thunder, and he has outplayed last years NBA MVP Russell Westbrook. His postseason averages check in at 18.5 points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game.

With how the Jazz have played as of late, I believe they’re going to be focusing more on how to win now, and not for the future. Rubio is under contract for next season at $14.8 million, and he will still only be 28 years old at that time. The Jazz will then be facing a very difficult decision on whether to keep him as the starting point guard, or to officially turn the reigns over to Exum.

Jazz Nation has fallen in love with Rubio and his passion for the game. He’s also been extremely active within the community, and is a finalist for the Community Assist Award in the NBA. If Exum can remain healthy and take additional strides in improving his game, though, it will be hard for the Jazz to pass on his youth and upside.

Next: Jazz notes: Kanter in OKC, Rubio up for Community Assist

Tough decisions are coming for the Jazz. I believe the Jazz will match any offer sheet that Exum may receive, but this next season is going to be crucial in determining whether Exum or Rubio is the point guard of the future for the Jazz. After next season, I can’t expect both to still be on the team, unless it becomes clear that Exum is not good enough to be a starter in this league.