Utah Jazz vs OKC Thunder: First round may hinge on Game 4

 Ricky Rubio and the Utah Jazz took control of their first-round destiny led by Rubio’s triple-double in a decisive 115-102 Game 3 victory.

Seventy-Four percent. That’s the likelihood of the Utah Jazz winning their first-round series, according to FiveThirtyEight. Whether or not that’s accurate remains to be seen. Other models are not as generous to the Jazz.

Regardless, that 74 percent rides on Game 4 in Salt Lake City. With a win, the Jazz go up 3-1 and back to OKC to face a (hopefully) deflated Thunder team at home. With a loss, OKC regains home court advantage and we go to OKC 2-2, needing to win at least one more game on the road.

There’s a few different story lines we’ll want to follow in the game.

Rubio to be “shut down”

This was an interesting one. Since when did Ricky Rubio go from the guy you leave open to the guy who must be “shut down”?

I won’t spend too much time talking about how Ricky Rubio outplayed MVP Russell Westbrook, earning a triple-double on Mr. Triple-Double himself. But we know who the MVP of Game 3 was.

If RWB decides that he needs to spend time shutting Ricky down, that may play right into Quin Snyder’s devious hands. As Russ is more aggressive on Rubio, it should give him more of a driving lane, forcing OKC’s bigs to react, opening up the corners or a Utah big in the paint. Ricky excels at finding the right guy, and playing him aggressively may actually give him more freedom on the court. When you leave Ricky open, you force him to beat you by shooting.

I also think Russ’ statement was the NBA equivalent of guys at rec-ball saying “I’ll actually try next game!”.

Steven Adams foul trouble

In Games 2 and 3, Steven Adams spent a lot of the night riding the pine with foul trouble. To be fair, some of the calls probably were flat-out wrong or should have been non-calls, but the whistle can go either way. This may seem like a really good thing, considering the concern some people had about Adams outplaying Rudy Gobert.

Thus far, however, Rudy and Derrick Favors have been excelling on the offensive and defensive glass and holding The Big Kiwi in check. With Adams out, it also let Billy Donovan go to a small-ball lineup.

While it isn’t anything close to Golden State’s Death Lineup, to be sure, it still created fits for Rudy and the Jazz during stretches of Games 2 and 3. Jerami Grant is an athletic rim-runner who can spread the floor. With him at the five spot and Patrick Patterson at the four spot, Rudy was forced to make difficult decisions about what to do on defense, resulting in some hot shooting from the three-point line for OKC.

That said, I’d rather worry about OKC having to beat us with three-point shooting from Patterson than worry about battling Adams down low.

Shooting

The Jazz have yet to have a really good three-point shooting night. To be fair, 13-of-34 (38 percent) as they put up in Game 3 is actually pretty good, but OKC was even better. They were 14-of-28. In fact, OKC has had a better three-point-shooting night than Utah in all three games of the series. This was a key to the series given that OKC is one of the worst at contesting and defending the three-point line.

If OKC can get blown out while shooting 14-of-28 from deep, I can’t wait to see what happens when Utah finally has a 50 percent three-point night of their own.

Next: Utah Jazz alumni update: Dolan, Knicks sounding off on Hornacek

A lot rides on this game. By winning, Utah virtually guarantees (but not completely) their round one victory. A loss, and the odds favor OKC.

Tip-off is at 8:30 PM MDT.