#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Utah Jazz
Ryan Aston: Of all the teams that were possible first-round matchups for the Utah Jazz over the last week of the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were the team that scared me the most. That said, I don’t think OKC’s 3-1 regular season advantage will mean much in the end. This is a different Jazz squad than the one the Thunder saw through most of the season.
The Jazz had a D-rating of 96 after the return of Rudy Gobert. OKC’s big three notwithstanding, Russell Westbrook and his crew are going to feel that pressure in this series. On the other end, the absence of Andre Roberson is going to loom even larger during postseason play. Corey Brewer playing is no small thing, but it won’t be enough. Jazz in 6
Zack Padmore: Oklahoma City vs Utah is one of the more intriguing first-round matchups, and I think the surging Jazz will come out on top. The trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Steven Adams may scare some fans, but the Jazz play as a team, and are coached extremely well. I think a big part of this series will be the play of the bench. Utah’s bench is much more talented and they are going to need the second unit to produce. Jazz in 6
Jared Barker: This is probably the series I think is the most evenly matched. You have great match-ups like Steven Adams vs Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell vs Russell Westbrook or to a lesser extent Russell Westbrook vs Ricky Rubio. The Jazz lost a lot of their playoff roster from last year so they’re fairly green when it comes to postseason experience. The Thunder may be battle tested but they also have the worst defender who may play major minutes in the series. Whoever the Jazz have matching up with Carmelo Anthony needs to cook him like a steak made to order for Donald Trump. Jazz in 7
Tyler Thorpe: Despite several intriguing first-round matchups across both conferences, this is the only series I see going seven games. After failing to capitalize on a golden opportunity to capture the third seed, Utah will open the series on the road. If recent history repeats itself, Utah will have no problem competing away from Salt Lake City. Last year’s first-round series against the Clippers saw the Jazz collect three of their four victories on the road. While that is more of an exception than the rule, Utah has fared quite well on the road as of late.
Utah’s 1-3 regular season record against OKC is concerning, but Utah is an entirely different team than the one that lost two games in three days to the Thunder in December. I still feel like OKC is one of Utah’s toughest matchups across the Western Conference playoff teams. OKC has the obvious advantage in star power, however, Quin Snyder is the X-factor in my opinion. Russell Westbrook and Paul George will present a unique set of challenges to Utah’s elite defense, but I expect coach Snyder and his staff to make the needed adjustments to squeak out a hard-fought series victory. Jazz in 7
John Keeffer: The hardest thing about this series is that Gobert only played against OKC during the early parts of the year when the Jazz weren’t the same team as we know them today. Only one of the games features the Jazz at full strength, but that was way back on October 21st. Gobert had 16 points and 13 rebounds, and the Jazz won by nine. These two teams match up well together on paper. Gobert/Adams, Favors/Anthony, Ingles/George, Mitchell/Rubio/Westbrook.
The scary thing for the Jazz is OKC has the star power. I believe Utah is the better team, but in any game, Westbrook and George could put the team on their back and make it difficult for the Jazz to win. Even Anthony, who has underperformed all year, has the potential to go off and be a difference maker (a la Joe Johnson). I’m still going Utah. Not just because I’m a homer, but because the Jazz play a team game. Both teams have an inconsistent offense, but Utah has the far better defense. That’s enough in my mind to give them the edge. Jazz in 6
Austin Leonard: Ask anyone that knows me and they’ll say I am a pessimist when it comes to predicting my teams’ games. That said, my gut is telling me the Jazz win this series handily. While the Jazz may have lost the season series 1-3 against the Thunder, not a single one of those games came after the Jazz January Renaissance.
With phenomenal defensive specialist Andre Roberson out for the season and a starting lineup that features notable abysmal defenders (Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony), the Thunder simply don’t have enough defense to counter the Jazz Death Lineup (Rubio, Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Gobert). Meanwhile, the Jazz boast the best defense in the league alongside one of the best Net Ratings post All-Star break. I’ve developed a simple equation that helped me calculate this series’ prediction: Better Coaching + Better Offense + Better Defense = Series Sweep. Jazz in 4
Tyler Crandall: In the second half of the season, the Jazz have the NBA’s top net rating, historically a good indicator of postseason success. Overall, they are fourth. While the Jazz lack “star power” and some playoff experience, they excel in some areas that could be a kryptonite for OKC. OKC is a poor team at contesting, denying and defending the three-point shot.
Snyder’s offense gets more wide open looks and uncontested shots than any team in the league. Utah needs to focus on limiting the Russ-Adams pick and roll and hope Westbrook decides to shoot instead of drive and kick to Paul George. This could end up being a ‘make or miss’ series. But it will be a dogfight. Jazz in 7
Hayden Van de Maat: Ah. The one we’ve all been waiting for. A tremendous turnaround from the Utah Jazz has turned their lottery-bound, pivot year into a second straight playoff appearance. Although being the fifth seed is a tremendous accomplish on its own, I can assure you that neither the players, nor the coaching staff are at all satisfied. Standing in their way of a second-straight second-round appearance are the fiery Oklahoma City Thunder.
This contest is all about the matchups. In my opinion, the two best centers in the NBA in Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams will square off in the middle, rookie sensation Donovan Mitchell will go toe-to-toe with one of the greatest playoff performers in recent memory in Paul George. But the most intriguing matchup will be Quin Snyder against Billy Donovan. This is where the series takes a drastic turn in Utah’s favor. Watching Donovan get thoroughly outcoached last year by Mike D’Antoni was really something to see. And I’d be astonished if we saw anything different in the coaching department this time around.
From a Jazz fan’s perspective, I’m hoping that Westbrook continues to stat-pad and play hero ball (which is impossible to deny). But if the Thunder can somehow blend together to the point where the makeup of the team is as strong as the sum of the parts, they could be hard to beat in this series. I think it’s a real possibility, however, that we see a lot of dysfunction from this Thunder team, and Quin Snyder and company will be able to sharply pick them apart. But I’m going to assume they meet in the middle of the continuum for my prediction. Jazz in 7
Jared Woodcox: Welp, I guess I’m the pessimist of the group. I’ve covered the Jazz-Thunder series in some detail in a recent piece and my latest podcast, so be sure to check those out for my full thoughts. I truly think there’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Utah’s chances in this series, beginning with their coaching advantage and their team-focused style of play, but I worry that at the end of the day, OKC’s stars and exceptional home court advantage will be too much for Utah to overcome. Thunder in 6
General Consensus: Jazz in 6
Next: Three-Point Threat Episode 29: Utah Jazz in the playoffs!
Well, there you have it, folks! The composite list of first round playoff predictions from your friends at The J-Notes! How do your predictions compare to ours? Let us know on Twitter or in the comments below. Playoffs, here we come!