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Utah Jazz: A scenario where the Jazz make an appearance in the 2018 NBA Finals

By Austin Leonard

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - APRIL 5: (EDITORS NOTE: this image has been converted to black and white) Rudy Gobert #27 of the Utah Jazz looks on during the game against the LA Clippers on April 5, 2018 at vivint.SmartHome Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY, UT - APRIL 5: (EDITORS NOTE: this image has been converted to black and white) Rudy Gobert #27 of the Utah Jazz looks on during the game against the LA Clippers on April 5, 2018 at vivint.SmartHome Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Utah Jazz making the NBA Finals this year isn’t likely, but may not be as far-fetched as some would have you believe. Key injuries to certain players combined with the Jazz’s surging success make this year as good as any for the team to make a run.

This article is not intended to be click bait. This is an actual, not necessarily likely, but possible scenario that could result in the Utah Jazz making an NBA Finals appearance in June 2018.

We need to start out with a few major disclaimers and assumptions here before we get started with this exercise. For the purposes of this scenario, we will assume the following:

  1. The Jazz will play as well in the playoffs as they have since Gobert came back from injury and after acquiring Jae Crowder. The Jazz have posted a net rating of 10.2 post All-Star break. This is good for number one in the league over that stretch. For comparison, the Houston Rockets are 0.5 behind this at 9.7, good for second best in the league and Western Conference. The Portland Trail Blazers are third in the West and fourth league wide at 6.7. We assume there will be no dip in production once the playoffs start or if there is, there is a similar dip in other teams’ production and the Jazz remain near the top.
  2. We also assume that Stephen Curry remains out for the first round or longer. If the Warriors are at full strength they win the Finals. Period.
  3. We assume Kawhi Leonard does not make a reappearance at any point this season or in the playoffs.
  4. Playoff James Harden™ and Playoff Chris Paul™ make an appearance. More on this later.
  5. The infamous injury bug stays away from the Utah Jazz throughout their playoff run.

I absolutely think that all of these assumptions are possible. Some, like Nos. 2 and 3, are almost a surefire thing. The remaining three, Nos. 1, 4 and 5, are a crapshoot and may or may not actually end up happening.

Heading into games set for April 8, the Western Conference standings are as follows:

1. Houston Rockets
2. Golden State Warriors
3. Portland Trail Blazers
4. Utah Jazz
5. New Orleans Pelicans
6. San Antonio Spurs
7. Oklahoma City Thunder
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
9. Denver Nuggets

There is a three-way tie between the Pelicans, Spurs and Thunder as well as a two-way tie between the Timberwolves and Nuggets.

Whoever finishes seventh will face the Warriors. This is a surefire thing as it is mathematically impossible for the Warriors to move up to the one-seed or move down to the three-seed. This is also where this scenario gets dicey: In order for the Jazz to have a shot at advancing to the Finals, the Warriors absolutely must be knocked out of the playoffs before Steph Curry comes back from injury. This almost surely has to take place in the first round.

While it is theoretically possible for the Jazz or Trail Blazers to fall to the 7-seed, this is not likely. More likely than not it will be a team currently seeded 5-9. I believe that of those five teams, three of them have a realistic shot of knocking out the Warriors: the Spurs, Thunder, or Timberwolves.

Let’s break this down further.

The Spurs have the greatest coach of all time at the helm (sorry Jerry Sloan). With Gregg Popovich, anything is possible and the Spurs should absolutely not be counted out despite the absence of Leonard. The Spurs could be out for blood this year after getting knocked out of the Western Conference Finals last year by the Warriors. This was also the series where Leonard got injured. That could further their desire for revenge and they should play hard.

The Thunder could similarly be out for revenge for obvious reasons. Expect Russell Westbrook to become Superhuman if he faces off against Kevin Durant. Paul George is arguably just as good or better than Klay Thompson. Then what? The Warriors have Draymond Green but the Thunder have Steven Adams, perennially one of the most underrated players in the league. This could be a very competitive series and it is not too far-fetched to assume the Thunder could emerge victorious.

Lastly we have the Timberwolves. While Tom Thibodeau is a moron in my opinion, the only reason they have fallen so low in the standings is because of the injury to Jimmy Butler. Butler has been absolutely essential for them this season. Before he went down they looked as if they had the three-seed locked up. Currently, he is easing his way back into their starting lineup and should be ready to go before the playoffs start. They could be a three-seed quality team disguised as the seven-seed and will definitely pose problems for the Warriors.

Of course, in the first round we are obviously assuming the Jazz finish either third or fourth and avoid the upset to move on to the second round. Several members of Utah’s presumed playoff rotation have playoff experience. Combine this with the fact that the Jazz have been on a tear of late and I think it’s a pretty safe bet to say that they will come out on top against whoever they face in the first round, especially with home court on their side. If not, then this entire article is all for naught and this scenario falls apart.

Moving on then.

In the second round there are two options for the Jazz depending on whether they finish third or fourth. If they finish third, then they play the winner of the Warriors vs. seven-seed. If the seven-seed failed to topple the Warriors and Steph Curry comes back (as is presumed) then best-case scenario for the Jazz is that they avoid the sweep and lose in 5 instead of 4. Golden State at full strength is just about unstoppable.

On the other hand, if the seven-seed DOES pull off the upset then the Jazz will be the odds-on favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. This is the dream scenario and harkens back to the Deron Williams era Western Conference Finals run in 2007 when the (coincidentally) 8-seeded Warriors toppled the 1-seeded Dallas Mavericks creating an easy second round match-up for the Jazz who were able to capitalize and advance.

The seven-seed in our scenario here would be coming off a historic, highly emotional, hard-fought series. Once again, provided there are no injuries and assuming the Jazz continue to play as well as they have of late, there is no reason as to why the Jazz would be upset by the seven-seed here (unless of course they’re facing the Spurs with Leonard, again refer back to the disclaimers at the beginning of the article). The Jazz will certainly have their work cut out for them here but should absolutely find a way to come out ahead.

Utah would then face the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals (unless they are upset in an earlier round which is highly unlikely). Utah would also face the Rockets in the second round if they finish as the four-seed. Either way, the path to the Finals in this scenario goes through Houston.

This is unfortunately where this exciting scenario starts to break down and where assumption number 4 comes into play. Rockets superstars James Harden and Chris Paul are well-known for choking come playoff time. Essentially the Utah Jazz would have to hope that this extends to this postseason as well.

While it is unlikely the Jazz upset the Rockets, it is not entirely impossible. As stated earlier, the Jazz have posted a marginally better net rating than the Rockets since the conclusion of the All-Star break. The Jazz also matched up relatively well against the Rockets last season. The regular-season series between these two teams might not tell the entire story (the Jazz were swept) either as the team had largely not fully come into the form they are currently in now.

This match-up would essentially pit the NBA’s best offense versus the NBA’s best defense. The Jazz absolutely have a fighting chance here and should not be counted out. This match-up should be thrilling no matter the conclusion. If the Jazz do pull this upset in the Western Conference Finals, they would advance to the NBA Finals. If they pull the upset in the second-round, their Western Conference Finals match-up would most likely be against the Trail Blazers (once again, assuming the Warriors are taken out in the first round) whom they match up well against.

As there are as many as five teams that could emerge from the Eastern Conference this year, analyzing how the Jazz would match-up with whoever they meet in the Finals is beyond the scope of this scenario.

Next: Jazz-Lakers key matchup: Favors vs Randle

There you have it, folks. While the Utah Jazz most likely will not hang a championship banner in 2018, this season is arguably as good a chance as we’ve had since at least 2007, if not 1998. If that doesn’t excite you as a Jazz fan, I don’t know what will.

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