Utah Jazz: Examining a first round date with the Spurs

The Utah Jazz could potentially face the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. After winning the season series 3-1, would this be a good matchup for the team?

Although landing in the third seed in the West is still in play for the Utah Jazz, actually doing so may be a tall order. The Jazz would need to win all three of their remaining games; against the LA Lakers, Golden State Warriors and, finally, the Portland Trail Blazers, who currently own the No. 3 spot.

Portland would need to lose again, too. So, instead of following that road, I’d like to explore a more likely outcome. Specifically, a 4-5 first-round series between the Jazz and San Antonio Spurs.

According to multiple statistical models (such as FiveThirtyEight), the Jazz are likely to end the season as the fourth seed with a 48-34 record.

Nylon Calculus’ Jacob Goldstein has made some pretty interesting projections with statistical models. In his most recent, the Jazz have a greater than 70 percent likelihood of homecourt advantage in the first round and over 50 percent of landing in the fourth spot.

The Spurs have a greater than 40 percent shot at landing in the fifth. If this were to happen, we’d be in for a competitive first-round series.

Once you Pop, the wins don’t stop

Despite many Jazz fans calling this the “best matchup” for the Jazz, likely based on the Jazz’s 3-1 series score against the Spurs this season, I personally don’t think it’s quite that simple or easy.

Gregg Popovich is one of the greatest coaches of all time and has an incredible post-season record.

Coach Pop has won 166 out of 272 playoff games. During the Spurs’ streak of 21 consecutive playoff seasons, Popovich-led teams have only lost in the first round four times. 

This is not a team that I want to see the Jazz play in the playoffs, and I’m not alone. Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune is also concerned about playing San Antonio.

What do the models say?

As you can see, this particular model favors the Jazz at 77 percent. This is a good sign. I’m still wary of facing Playoffs Pop, but this is a very good Jazz team and maybe, just maybe, the 3-1 season series record is indicative of Utah’s chances for victory.

And come what may — first-round exit, winning a playoff series, or even a trip to the Western Conference Finals — this season has still been a wild success and it’s been exciting to be a part of regardless.

At this point, we can still hope for a third seed, but this possibility is something to keep in mind, as it may become a reality.