FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions still bode well for Utah Jazz

While they should be taken somewhat with a grain of salt, recent projection models still have the Utah Jazz finishing out the season extremely well.

As we’ve seen on several occasions this past week, such as when the Memphis Grizzlies upset both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers as well as when the Utah Jazz fell to a depleted Boston Celtics team, predictions and calculations can only tell us so much. There’s a reason why the games are played and why sports are so exciting, because at the end of the day despite any projection models or educated guesses, the outcomes are truly always in question.

Even so, it’s always fun to take a peek at such calculations to see how they foresee the future unfolding as well as to see how they end up matching up with reality. And although the Jazz have faltered a bit, going just 3-3 in their last six contests including two discouraging defeats in the aforementioned Boston loss and the one a week prior to the Atlanta Hawks, FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Predictions still have the Jazz finishing in an awesome spot.

And when I say awesome, I mean REALLY awesome. Not only that, but it seems reasonably plausible as well.

They have the Jazz, the New Orleans Pelicans, the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder all finishing in a deadlock at 47-35. Why is that so good? Well, first of all, because in the head-to-head matchups between those four teams, the Jazz just so happen to own the tiebreaker based on current records (that could change, but more on that in a second). That’s right, despite losing 1-3 to Oklahoma City, Utah’s 3-1 mark against both the Pels and Spurs gives them the edge, meaning that they would finish in fourth place in the West in this scenario.

Yep, fourth place as in home court advantage – that’s the one I’m referring to! But wait! The greatness doesn’t stop there. Not only do the FiveThirtyEight projections have all four of these teams tied, but they have the season concluding such that Utah would be fourth in the West while the Pelicans would be fifth, meaning a first-round matchup between those two.

As I touched on in a recent playoff preview piece, that’s without a doubt the matchup I’d most like to see for the Jazz giving them what I believe would be their best chance to advance to the second round.

But how did FiveThirtyEight get to that landscape? Allow me to explain. Here’s how the four teams’ head-to-head records among themselves currently look:

• San Antonio: 4-7
• New Orleans: 5-5
• Oklahoma City: 6-5
• Utah: 7-5

Based on that layout, Oklahoma City would have the edge over the Pelicans for that fifth seed if each of these teams were tied in the standings. However, these records aren’t complete yet and the absolute tiebreaker hasn’t been decided as New Orleans plays both the Thunder and the Spurs one more time. Technically, OKC could rise and take the fourth seed from the Jazz in a tiebreaker, but fortunately, FiveThirtyEight has the Pelicans winning both times.

If such does occur, then here’s how the records would look instead at the season’s end:

• San Antonio: 4-8
• New Orleans: 7-5
• Oklahoma City: 6-6
• Utah: 7-5

Then, of course, Utah has the edge over New Orleans due to the 3-1 nature of their individual matchup, thus putting Utah fourth and New Orleans fifth. As I mentioned, this would be an absolute dream scenario in my mind. The Jazz matched up extremely well against the Pelicans this year, and even though they have Anthony Davis, I like Utah’s chance of keeping pace with them once again.

To get to that 47-win mark, the Jazz will need to go 5-2 to close out the year. If they stick right in line with the FiveThirtyEight projections, that will have them defeating the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Lakers (twice), LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors while falling to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers. Sounds pretty reasonable.

Meanwhile, San Antonio and OKC would need to go 3-3, while New Orleans would need to go 4-3, with two of those four wins coming over both the Spurs and Thunder.

To see what the rest of the first round would look like in the West if this all occurred as FiveThirtyEight has predicted, check out this bracket below from FanSided alum Spencer Wixom:

A lot of those matchups would certainly make for a fun first round if you ask me!

Do I think it’s going to turn out just like this, though? Not a chance. As I said, there’s a reason the games are played and aren’t just calculated. Teams are going to drop games they should win, and win some they probably shouldn’t either. Upsets will occur both for better or for worse.

Even so, it’s good to see that despite Utah’s recent struggles, there’s still a realistic shot of them climbing in the standings, perhaps even still nabbing home court advantage be it due to earning a four-way tiebreaker or simply closing out the season strong, finishing with more than 47 wins and surging up the standings.

I know that I, like many Jazz fans, was discouraged after Utah’s loss to Boston. But those kinds of games happen. Do the Jazz need to play better? Certainly! They quite frankly haven’t looked on point since their March 15th win over Phoenix. But they’ve definitely turned things around on several occasions this season and are in a great spot to do that once again to close out the year.

They very well may not reach as high as the fourth seed – it will be an extreme challenge, to be sure! But these projections should at least help Jazz fans take heart in knowing that doomsday hasn’t occurred. Despite currently sitting in eighth place, Utah is still in a great spot in the thick of the playoff race with an opportunity to continue to climb.

Next: Utah Jazz: Official or not, Donovan Mitchell is OUR Rookie of the Year

They’ll continue that push Friday evening as they host the Memphis Grizzlies in an important contest for their playoff chances at 7:00 PM MT.