FiveThirtyEight Predictions now have Utah Jazz out of the playoffs

Despite the Utah Jazz’s playoff odds soaring through the roof before the All-Star break, the latest FiveThirtyEight projections now have them falling short.

The Utah Jazz were flying high prior to the All-Star break as they strung together an incredible 11-game winning streak. Unfortunately, they’ve come back down to earth in a big way since then as they’ve now lost two of their last three following the break.

Granted, both losses were quite understandable as they faced a tough Portland Trail Blazers squad and the West-leading Houston Rockets, but that doesn’t change the fact that Utah’s performances in those contests were quite a letdown. And while Utah’s playoff hopes were looking pretty favorable prior to the break, all of a sudden, despite the incredibly small sample size, they just don’t seem as bright as they once were.

Part of that is just recency bias due to the fact that the once invincible-looking Jazz have suddenly lost two of three, but it also has to do with the fact that, as I mentioned yesterday, Utah’s closest competitors in the standings aren’t backing down. Rather than faltering, nearly all of them are playing fantastic ball making it extremely hard for the Jazz to close the gap.

And, unfortunately, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight NBA Predictions from the morning of February 27, that’s a gap that Utah isn’t expected to overcome. Instead of the 90 percent chance of making the playoffs that the Jazz had at the height of their winning streak, they now just have a 55 percent shot.

Not only that, but the FiveThirtyEight odds actually have Utah out of the playoffs, finishing the year at 44-38, tied with the LA Clippers for ninth in the West, behind the projected 45-win New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets, the 46-win Oklahoma City Thunder and 47-win Portland Trail Blazers.

These projections are very fluid for obvious reasons, but the latest update certainly doesn’t bode well for the Jazz. If someone had told me prior to the start of the season that the Jazz would win 44 games, I would have thought for sure that they’d find a way to nab the seventh or eighth spot in the West. But based on how well the rest of the conference is playing, it’s not unrealistic at all to presume that 44 won’t be enough.

Therefore, it’s pretty clear that the Jazz have their work cut out for them. If they’re to surpass that 44-win mark that they supposedly need to make the playoffs, they’ll need to go 14-7 the rest of the way. That’s not impossible, but it’s not going to be easy.

The one thing that the Jazz certainly have going for them, though, that I think could help them go on to prove these latest FiveThirtyEight projections horribly wrong is that their remaining schedule is one of the easiest in the league. Sure, they’ll have to play much better even than they did in their latest win against the Dallas Mavericks, but still, as long as Utah takes care of business against lesser teams, they could very well experience another surge.

Not only is their schedule pretty light, but that of their closest opponents is rough for the most part which should give Utah some additional wiggle room. It could even potentially lower the bar for the number of wins they need to get in and make their path slightly easier.

Whether that ends up being the case or not, one thing is clear – the Jazz’s road to the playoffs is far from a guarantee. They have a lot of ground still to make up. And they’ll need at least two teams ahead of them in the standings to go through somewhat of a slump.

Next: Utah Jazz can still make playoffs, but they’re going to need some help

That’s a lot of stipulations, to be sure. But if there’s anything this Jazz team has shown us all year long, it’s that they’re never going to throw in the towel. I expect them to fight for their lives up until the last second of the last game of the season.

And while I’m as nervous as any Jazz fan would be, I’m still sticking with the optimistic belief that Utah is indeed going to find a way to push into the playoffs. Even if it ends up being merely by the skin of their teeth.