Utah Jazz: Does recent Kawhi Leonard news make Spurs ideal playoff matchup?

It’s been reported that Kawhi Leonard may not return this season. If that holds true, should the Utah Jazz hope for a playoff matchup against the San Antonio Spurs?

Here’s the deal. As the Western Conference standings currently stand, the Utah Jazz are in 10th place and out of playoff contention. Despite an 11-game winning streak leading up to the All-Star break, they still don’t have a high enough win percentage to find themselves in the top eight. That’s the bad news.

But with that out of the way, there’s also some very, very good news. The Jazz are two games above .500, just 1.5 games out of eighth place and just 2.5 games out of fifth place. Oh, and not to mention, Utah has an extremely favorable schedule to close out the year while many of the teams above the Jazz in the standings have a daunting slate to finish 2017-18.

So while the Jazz wouldn’t make the playoffs if they started today, they’re in a prime position to surge up the standings and certainly make it there after the upcoming 24 games. In fact, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest NBA predictions, the Jazz have an 87 percent chance to make the playoffs and are projected to finish with a 46-36 record, good for a sixth place finish in the West.

If that were to hold true, according to FiveThirtyEight, the Jazz would then play the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are projected to slip past the San Antonio Spurs for the third seed by one game, in the first round of the playoffs. However, if Utah were to get the sixth seed and the top three teams stay as they are currently, they would face off in the first round against the Spurs instead.

Normally, the thought of having to face the Spurs in a playoff series would feel like a death sentence. It’s no secret that playing against San Antonio hasn’t exactly been kind to the Jazz in recent years. Dating back to the 2011-12 season in which the Jazz were swept in the playoffs by the Spurs, the Jazz are 6-16 against San Antonio during the regular season (excluding 2017-18). The previous time they met in the playoffs in 2007, Utah was easily handled 4-1.

However, the Jazz have managed to flip the script somewhat this season as they’re a perfect 3-0 against the Spurs despite playing each game on the second night of a back-to-back. Sure, the Spurs have been less than healthy in each of those bouts, but the Jazz have dealt with their own share of injury problems for those games as well. Regardless, the fact that Utah has pulled off a trio of wins against such a daunting foe that is still third in the West is extremely impressive.

But a common response to these wins from both Jazz and Spurs fans alike has been something along the lines of, “Well if Kawhi Leonard were healthy this season, it would be a different story.”

That’s undoubtedly true. When at his best, Leonard is one of the top players in the league on both ends of the floor, capable of locking up an opposing team’s best player while also dropping 30-plus points in their face. All year long, it’s felt like Kawhi’s return was only a matter of time meaning that no matter where the Spurs ended up in the standings, they’d likely be a more deadly foe than their seed indicated with him in their ranks.

However, according to a recent report, that may not be much of a concern after all.

ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski dropped an interesting brand of Woj bomb on Wednesday with an update on the Spurs superstar. Here’s what he had to say on the matter:

"Leonard has been medically cleared to return from the right quad tendinopathy injury, but since shutting down a nine-game return to the San Antonio Spurs that ended Jan. 13, he has elected against returning to the active roster, sources said. If Leonard returns, it will be because he has decided he can manage the pain of the injury, according to the sources."

This was further complimented by a jaw-dropping quote from Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich:

"“We only have X number of games left in the season, and he’s still not ready to go. If by some chance he is, it’s gonna be pretty late into the season; and it’s going to be a pretty tough decision — how late to bring somebody back. So that’s why I’m just trying to be honest and logical. I’ll be surprised if he gets back this year.”"

That last part, the “I’ll be surprised if he gets back this year” part, was the real head-turner. If Kawhi isn’t going to make a return this season, suddenly the Spurs look, well, exactly how they’ve looked all season – mortal. And extremely beatable.

As I mentioned, the Jazz have gone 3-0 against them in the regular season. Sure, the playoffs are a different animal and you know that a Popovich-led team that boasts the veteran experience of the Spurs is going to be as prepared as ever, but still, as crazy as it sounds even in my own head, I want the Jazz to face San Antonio in the first round.

Obviously, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors are the cream of the crop and the surefire teams that Utah would want to avoid by finishing higher than seventh place. But if they do get to the sixth or fifth spot, it’s anyone’s guess who they’d end up playing between the Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves or perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Jazz still have to play Minnesota two more times, but the T-Wolves enjoy a 2-0 regular season series lead against Utah while the Thunder won the series 3-1. Although the Spurs may arguably have the best team of those three, no player (setting Kawhi to one side) on San Antonio can give Utah as many problems as Minnesota’s Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns or OKC’s Russell Westbrook, Paul George and I’d even include Steven Adams.

Yes, the Thunder have been inconsistent and shown plenty of signs of weakness. The Thibodeau-led Wolves log crazy regular season minutes and could be run ragged by the time playoffs start. Either one of those characteristics could serve as advantages for the Jazz if they were to face them in the postseason.

Nevertheless, when looking at how well Utah has matched up against San Antonio this season and assuming that Pop’s statement holds true putting Kawhi Leonard out of the picture, then regardless of records, weaknesses or any other factor, the Spurs are the team that I would most like to see Utah match up against in the first round of the playoffs.

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I’ll be honest, those are words I thought I would never hear leave my mouth in the Popovich era. But without Kawhi, the Spurs just aren’t the foreboding monster that they typically are. Add that to how much confidence the Jazz should have against them after going 3-0 versus San Antonio thus far, and it certainly seems that it would be the most ideal matchup.

The Jazz have a lot of work to do to even make the playoffs, let alone rise to a seed higher than the seventh seed that would give them a shot at facing the Spurs. Not to mention, Kawhi could come back sooner than predicted, the Spurs could switch spots in the standings with another team such as the Wolves or some other unforeseen scenario could happen preventing the possibility (or preference) of a Jazz-Spurs matchup at all.

Nevertheless, based on what we know now and if this speculation about Kawhi Leonard not returning holds true, then that’s absolutely the opponent that the Jazz should desire heading into this year’s playoffs.