Utah Jazz: Does Donovan Mitchell now have the edge in ROY race?

Increase scoring to 20 Points Per Game

Since the 1996 season, nine rookies have finished with scoring averages of above 20 points per game. Of those nine, seven won Rookie of the Year honors. The two that lost? Joel Embiid, who didn’t play enough games to truly qualify, and Carmelo Anthony, who lost to another rookie who averaged 20-plus points (some guy named Lebron James).

This shows two things. 1) a rookie scoring 20 ppg is a rare occurrence, and 2) unless another rookie does something special (like getting to double-digit triple-doubles for the season), they are typically guaranteeing themselves the Rookie of the Year award.

Mitchell is currently averaging 19.6 points per game, but since November 1, so all we are cutting out is the first two weeks of the season, Mitchell is averaging 21.1 points. As long as there isn’t a major drop off post All-Star break, Mitchell should easily be able to finish the season averaging above 20 points per game.

One of the most consistent arguments I hear in favor of Ben Simmons, is that while Mitchell may be besting him in scoring, Simmons has a higher rebound and assist average.

While that is true, I don’t support the argument. Different players at different positions and playing for different teams, should not be compared with their numbers side by side. Ben Simmons is averaging more rebounds than Mitchell? Well that’s shocking — he’s only eight inches taller than Mitchell.

As for the assist numbers, Simmons and Mitchell are asked to fill two completely different roles on their respective teams. The Sixers put the ball in Simmons hands, and ask him to be a playmaker; to set others up. The Jazz put the ball in his hands and ask him to score.

If the roles were reversed, and the two were to switch teams, Mitchell would likely find more success than Simmons. Simmons is not a natural scorer, but Mitchell has shown terrific passing vision to go along with his scoring chops.

So you can’t discount Mitchell just because Simmons’ rebounding and assist numbers are higher. If Mitchell can get his scoring average above 20 points per game, his lower rebound and assist numbers should not be a factor.

Sidenote: The assist can be a bit of an arbitrary stat anyway. This was recently said by Ben Falk on his website, Cleaning the Glass. “The assist is dependent on whether a teammate makes a shot. A great pass for a wide-open lay-up that’s blown isn’t counted, even if it results in an immediate put-back for points. Nor is it counted if the defense fouls to prevent the basket.

An assist is also dependent on the first player receiving the pass [and] making the shot. If Ben Simmons comes off a screen and fires a cross-court laser to the opposite corner, the defense might rotate to the corner shooter. When that shooter swings it to the wide open wing three, now he’ll get the assist even though we’d say Simmons is the one who did most of the work in creating the shot.”