Utah Jazz vs. Indiana Pacers: Keys to getting the W at home

The Utah Jazz will likely be in for a challenging and entertaining game as they host the Indiana Pacers tonight at Vivint Smart Home Arena.

Home sweet home. It’s got to feel good for the Utah Jazz to finally set foot back within Vivint Smart Home Arena after being out on a four-game road trip that was less than friendly to them as they went just 1-3. The Jazz’s road woes continue to be one of their biggest weaknesses as they’ve dropped to 4-18 in such games.

The Jazz were supposed to start turning things around this month after a tough December, but the way January has started with a brutal road slate has been far from ideal. They’re a much better 13-7 at home, but they haven’t been without their problems there either. Utah’s most recent contest at home featured a lackluster second half in a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, so even playing within the friendly confines of The Viv is far from a guaranteed W.

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Therefore, the Jazz will have to absolutely be at their best if they hope to come away with a win tonight against an exhilarating Indiana Pacers team. I thought my J-Notes colleague Hayden Van de Maat hit the nail on the head in a piece from this morning as he described the Pacers as one of the most enjoyable teams to watch in the league.

Their team-first focus led by entertaining and effective players such as Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner (who is out for tonight’s contest), Lance Stephenson and others has made them an exciting and successful squad as they look poised to nab a playoff spot in the East, which many presumed would in no way be the case heading into this season.

So the Jazz will have their work cut out for them against a surging Pacers team that is coming off a blowout win last night in Phoenix and has been a difficult opponent for even the elite teams to handle (just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are 0-3 against Indy). Particularly with the likes of Rudy Gobert, Thabo Sefolosha and Dante Exum all out of commission, Utah will have to excel in the following areas if they’re to have any chance of coming away with a win.

Key #1 – Dominate the second half, especially 3rd quarter

One of the reasons why the Indiana Pacers have been so exciting this year is that they have been a team that absolutely never quits. They’ve posted comeback win after comeback win this season, most recently against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday where Indiana overcame a 22-point deficit to seal the victory. It was an absolutely mind-blowing and gritty performance where they clearly showed their mettle.

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz, especially of late, have struggled to get going after halftime, particularly during the third quarter. On the season, the Jazz are being outscored by 1.5 points in the third quarter, which is 24th in the league. In losses, that number drops catastrophically as they’re outscored by 6.1 points, 28th in the league.

Not only that, but the two teams trailing Utah in that regard have winning records, so you could make a pretty logical argument that Utah has been the worst third quarter team in the NBA based on all their losses. Even if Utah takes a lead into halftime, that’s something that the Pacers are more than accustomed to and the Jazz can’t afford to come out flat-footed or it’s likely that Indiana will come out ready to surge back to the lead.

The Pacers have the eighth best point differential in the league in third quarters, so that’s clearly been their money time while it’s ironically been where Utah has struggled. Interestingly enough, the Utah Jazz have been solid on the season in the fourth quarter with the league’s sixth best point differential.

In wins, they’ve blown teams away in the final period with a +5.9 differential, the best in the league. Meanwhile, Indiana hasn’t been nearly as strong in the fourth quarter as they have been in the third, which means the Jazz will need to likely hold off a strong Pacers push in the third then keep up their usual strong play in the fourth to come out on top.

Of course, every game is different, but judging on past contests where Indiana has come out of halftime energized and dangerous while Utah has come out somewhat idle, the third quarter play of both teams may very well determine the victor in tonight’s contest.

Key #2 – Keep Indy off the three-point line

Surprising though it may seem, the Indiana Pacers are second in the league in three-point percentage at 38.3 percent, trailing only the incredibly talented Golden State Warriors (38.9 percent). When you look at what their individual guys are shooting, though, it becomes clear just how the Pacers have been so red-hot from deep.

Bojan Bogdanovic, Domantas Sabonis and Cory Joseph are all shooting over 38 percent while Victor Oladipo, Alex Poythress, Darren Collison and T.J. Leaf are all shooting over 40 percent.

Ironically enough, though, while the Pacers are near the top in the league in three-point percentage, they’re also among the bottom in the league in three-point attempts as they put up just 24.8 per contest, good for 25th in the NBA. In other words, the three-point shot has been an incredible weapon for Indy, but they haven’t overused it, but have instead relied on a well-balanced attack.

Even with that being the case, the Pacers are taking exactly two more three-point shots in wins than in losses. So if Utah wants to hold Indiana in check and prevent them from getting in a groove from three where they’ve been red hot, they’ll need to do everything they can to limit them from getting good looks from behind the arc.

The Pacers are also shooting an incredible 43.4 percent from deep in wins and just 31.9 percent in losses. That’s a stark difference and just goes to show that if Indy is hitting from three (which they do extremely well) they’re likely winning the game. The Jazz will need to take it upon themselves to seal up the perimeter with everything they have if they are to prevent the Pacers from running them off the court.

Key #3 – Stop Victor Oladipo

One of the major reasons why the Indiana Pacers have so greatly surpassed expectations this season is because Victor Oladipo as an individual has undergone incredible personal improvements. People mocked the Pacers for getting just Oladipo and Sabonis in the Paul George trade, but those doubters have been absolutely silenced as both have played exceptionally well, especially Oladipo.

Dipo is in the running to become a starter in the All-Star game and without a doubt will qualify to be an All-Star even if it’s as a reserve instead. He’s leading his team in scoring at 24.2 points per game which is also 11th in the league. Furthermore, he’s doing that on a highly efficient 48.8 percent shooting from the field and 40.9 percent from deep while adding 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.0 steals per game. Wow.

But as Oladipo goes, so go the Pacers. Oladipo’s efficiency drops significantly in losses as he converts on 45.5 percent of his field goals (51.3 percent in wins) and just 32.4 percent of his three-point shots (47.4 percent in wins). When Oladipo was recently sidelined with a knee injury, the Pacers went 0-4. The very next night that he came back, the Pacers rattled off a 39-point victory over the Chicago Bulls, a team that had defeated them by 12 just three games earlier.

So if Utah wants to win tonight, they’ll need to cut the head off the snake and stop Victor Oladipo. It’ll be an absolute thrill to see Oladipo and rookie sensation Donovan Mitchell go head-to-head and as The J-Notes’ Hayden Van de Maat pointed out this morning, the winner of that match-up could very well determine the winner of the game.

Prediction – Pacers 102, Jazz 97

Even though the Indiana Pacers come into Salt Lake City tonight on the second night of a back-to-back, they’re coming off a huge 120-97 throttling of the Phoenix Suns in which their starters got some much-needed rest. And while Myles Turner will be sidelined for tonight’s action, Domantas Sabonis has been every bit as good and at times even more reliable. Therefore, neither fatigue nor injury will likely be all that much of an issue for the Pacers.

With that being the case and considering how much Utah has struggled of late as well as their own injury woes, I have a feeling the electrifying and high-octane Pacers may be too much for them to handle. I’m expecting a close game, perhaps one where Indy trails early but comes back in the second half as they’ve done so much this year, but my guess is that at the end of the day the Pacers will come out on top by a narrow score of 102-97.

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Following tonight’s contest, the Utah Jazz will head out on the road to visit the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday before wrapping up the week with two straight home games against the New York Knicks on Friday and LA Clippers on Saturday.