Utah Jazz stand-out rookie Donovan Mitchell is leading all rookies in scoring at 18.8 points per game and is a runner-up Rookie of the Year.
It seems a little crazy to start comparing a rookie who has played 42 games in a Utah Jazz uniform to a bonafide All-Star in Gordon Hayward, but it’s hard to ignore what Donovan Mitchell has been doing since December 1st.
On David Locke’s Locked On Jazz podcast earlier this month, he did a comparison using his proprietary PAAC (Points Above Average Created) metric to compare 10 games from Donovan to Hayward’s best season (2016-17). I assumed Hayward would be far and away the “better player” in that comparison. I assumed wrongly.
LOCKED ON JAZZ https://t.co/LAwxybL0Jb - A therapy session for Locke, PAAC Friday and your PAAC questions - How does Donovan compare to Gordon, Ricky Rubio over the years and OKC last 10 games
— David Locke (@DLocke09) January 5, 2018
By Locke’s metric, 0 is average, negative is below average (duh), and anything above 2.0 is elite. Last season, Rudy Gobert was one of a handful of players over 2.0. Gordon Hayward was 1.6 for the year. Donovan Mitchell in those 10 games was at a 1.5. This is incredible.
In light of this comparison, I wanted to do a deeper analysis of a few specific categories from 2016-17 Hayward to recent-Donovan.
Specifically, there’s an area that I personally think sets an All-Star level player above the rest. Points and scoring are important, so are steals, blocks, and any other basic stats. The problem with that is that they don’t show context.
No, what really sets a star apart is their ability to take over a game and will their way to a victory. Players like that become unstoppable when they “turn it on”. Hayward was capable of doing this on occasion. Players like Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are capable of doing it on the regular.
Donovan Mitchell, as a rookie, has also shown that special ability.
The Hair or the Spider
First, let’s look at the season stats for Gordon Hayward 2016-17 and Donovan Mitchell 2017-2018. Granted, it’s 40 games played compared to 73, but that should be a large enough sample.
And these numbers are remarkably similar. Almost eerily similar. The only major difference is the free throw attempts and makes, which Hayward had almost three additional makes per game. It’s not a coincidence then that Mitchell averages about three points per game less than Hayward.
In fourth-quarter scoring, which may be a more apt benchmark for that “it” factor we mentioned, Donovan Mitchell is 8th in the NBA, at 6.4 points per fourth quarter.
Yes, you heard me correctly. Not just among rookies, but among all players. Behind the likes of Jimmy Butler, Damian Lillard, LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
In 2016-17, Gordon Hayward was 24th in fourth quarter scoring at 5.7 points per fourth quarter.
Again, context is important, which is why I hesitate to just share stats without full context. The 2016-17 Jazz were an excellent team and Gordon Hayward was at the helm. He led the team in scoring, usage, and was the go-to guy who often willed the team to win. He was consistent night in and night out and was always an unselfish player.
In the advanced stats comparison, Hayward was more efficient (efficiency is hard for rookies, even the best rookie of all time Donovan Mitchell), and also had significantly more win-shares. Of course, the team had more wins so it makes sense that he contributed to more wins.
At this point, it looks like Mitchell has the higher ceiling than Hayward and as a far younger player having a nearly identical statistical impact, in terms of raw per game stats, Mitchell is my choice for building a franchise.
Donovan Mitchell is clearly an incredible force who I expect to make a superstar leap this next off-season, but that doesn’t change the loss that was Gordon Hayward.
Next: Utah Jazz vs. Indiana Pacers: Keys to getting the W at home
In fact, Utah Jazz would have been far better off had they retained Hayward along with drafting MItchell. You could argue that this wouldn’t have given Donovan the same opportunity to develop, but Mitchell is a special player and I don’t doubt he would have figured it out.
Regardless, there are exciting times ahead for Jazz fans. While this has been a demoralizing season so far, we have a bright future ahead of us.