Utah Jazz: Are playoff hopes still realistic?

As we are nearing the mid-way point of the season, it is time to seriously ask the question, are the Utah Jazz a playoff team, or not?

Heading into the 2017-18 season, Utah Jazz fans were cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. While the departure of All-Star Gordon Hayward was difficult to stomach, when looking at the roster it appeared to be a defense-first roster built for a run to the playoffs.

Now at the mid-way point of the season, the likelihood of making the playoffs seems to be lessening by the minute. Coming off a surprising victory against the Wizards, the Jazz are currently 17-24, and since their 6-game win streak early in December, they have gone 4-17. In that time they have the second worst Net Rating in the NBA, at -9. They have fallen into the habit of winning a game, and then dropping the next three or four in a row.

The schedule for December and January is without a doubt one of the most difficult scheduled stretches for any team in the NBA, and it doesn’t get any easier soon. From now through February 11th, 10 of the next 15 games will be played on the road. The season will then soften greatly, so the hope would be that the Jazz can finish strong and squeak into the postseason.

What’s the likelihood of that actually happening though? Assuming the Jazz will need to finish with at least a .500 record to make the playoffs, I went through to try and predict their final record.

The format I used was fairly simple: I looked at each of the remaining games, and I either grouped them in the “Games we should win” category, “Games we should lose” category, or a “Toss-up” Category. For the games that were a toss up, I tried to look at other variables to determine whether they should win or lose. Namely the location and what the outcome was if we had already played them.

Here is how it all broke down:

• Games we should Win:

  • @Sacramento, @Atlanta, @Phoenix, @Memphis, Charlotte, Phoenix, Dallas, @Sacramento, Orlando, @Memphis, Phoenix, Sacramento, Atlanta, @Dallas, Memphis, Lakers, @Lakers

• Games we should Lose:

  • @Toronto, Golden State, @San Antonio, San Antonio, Houston, Minnesota, @Indiana, @San Antonio, @Golden State, Boston, @Minnesota, Golden State

  • Toss-Up:

    • @Charlotte, Indiana, New York, Clippers, @Detroit, @New Orleans, @Portland, Portland, @New Orleans, Detroit, Clippers, @Portland

    Obviously, this is very subjective. For the purposes of this exercise though, we are going to assume that the Jazz will win the games they should, and will lose the games you would expect them to lose. If that were the case, the Jazz would be sitting with a record of 34-36.

    Now for the toss-up games.

    • @Charlotte (W) The Hornets just lost to Dallas at home…Dallas.
    • Indiana (L) As long as Oladipo is healthy, the Pacers are going to be a difficult matchup, even at home.
    • New York (W) The Jazz also seem to play well in nationally televised games.
    • Clippers (W) Injuries galore. With no Blake, the Jazz should win…unless Lou Williams goes off for 50 points.
    • @ Detroit (L) The Jazz play Detroit twice. I’ll give the victory to the home team in each.
    • @New Orleans (W) Gobert will be back by this point, so of the final two road games against the Pels, I think the Jazz can get one.
    • @Portland (W) The Jazz will face Portland three times before the end of the season. I’m giving them the first two, but have them losing the last.
    • Portland (W)
    • @New Orleans (L)
    • Detroit (W)
    • Clippers (W)
    • @Portland (L) This may be the most intriguing game of the season. Both teams will be fighting to make the playoffs, and the final game of the season could determine that. Utah will be coming off a back-to-back vs the Warriors though. So the edge goes to Portland.

    Maybe I’m a homer (okay, I definitely am), but that has them going 8-4 in toss-up games. If the rest of the season were to pan out exactly as planned, this would have the Jazz finishing at 42-40, which would place them in an excellent position to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

    Most Jazz fans are feeling pretty down in the dumps about their team. Rightfully so, when you consider the meager four wins they have been able to generate over the last 16 games. Hopefully what I’ve described here gives them hope.

    Next: Utah Jazz report card: Each Jazz player grades out at the season’s midway point

    When I began writing this article, I thought I was going to be writing about the playoffs being out of reach for the Jazz, but after going through the schedule, that is just not the case. It is going to be difficult, but Rudy Gobert is going to be returning soon, a potential trade on the horizon could improve the composition of the team, the schedule is going to get much softer, and the Jazz should still be able to turn this season around.

    Take Note Jazz fans. The season isn’t over yet.