Utah Jazz at Miami Heat: Keys to reversing road woes

The Utah Jazz have struggled mightily on the road and things aren’t about to get any easier as they visit the Miami Heat this afternoon.

In case you missed it, the Utah Jazz have been absolutely atrocious this season on the road where they own a horrific 3-16 record which includes some losses to less than daunting foes. That poor play continued in full force in their most recent contest where they lost to the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center in a game where they trailed by as many as 21 points.

And unfortunately for the Jazz, they’re far from done with their current road trip as they still have three away games remaining beginning with their bout against the Miami Heat this afternoon. The Heat have been a bit of an interesting team so far this season with their share of ups and downs, but they’ve played well of late and it’s resulted in them winning seven of their last ten games and finding themselves solidly in sixth place in the East at 21-17.

In other words, this will be no easy task for the Jazz who have played poorly on the road against essentially everybody and who were easily stopped by the Miami Heat last time around even when they weren’t playing as well as a team. It’s come to the point where Jazz wins feel less and less likely, but in a professional league, any team can surprise another at any given time, so if Utah is to reverse their road woes and finally get a win, excelling in these three key areas is how they’ll do it.

Key #1 – Give the ball to Donovan Mitchell

For better or for worse, like it or not, the Utah Jazz’s best offensive player and scoring threat is rookie Donovan Mitchell. That just so happens to be why he leads the team in scoring despite having played just 39 games as a pro.

However, I was absolutely stunned how in the game against the Denver Nuggets on Friday, it seemed as if he hardly got the ball in the second half. When he had it, he was shooting quite well – 6-of-13 from the field and 3-of-6 from deep – and he was also distributing with ease. He finished the game with five assists which should have been much more if his often offensively-challenged teammates would have been able to find the bottom of the net.

Nevertheless, Mitchell still just so happened to post his fourth-lowest usage percentage of the season in that game at just 18.6 percent, despite playing a hearty 36 minutes.

https://twitter.com/spidadmitchell/status/949518144841879552

For reference, the other three games where he had a lower usage rate were the blowout win over the Orlando Magic where he played just 26 minutes due to sitting out in garbage time, the loss at Houston where he played just 21 minutes likely due to an ailing toe and the sole win against the Oklahoma City Thunder which was back in October before Mitchell had really forced himself into major playing time.

In other words, in a meaningful game in which Mitchell saw significant minutes, this was about the most under-utilized he’s been all season long. That’s even more disturbing when considering that Ricky Rubio, who was a pathetic -25 on the night, logged a usage percentage of 22.4 percent and Joe Johnson and Alec Burks who couldn’t find their shot whatsoever were at 20.8 and 26 percent, respectively. Quite frankly, that’s disgraceful.

So, in short, if the Jazz want to take the first step to reversing their recent woes and to figure out a way to beat the Heat on the road, then the number one thing they need to do is pretty simple – give Donovan Mitchell the ball! Early and often! Let the rookie go to work and do his thing. Regardless of what other players believe about the hierarchy of the team, Mitchell has been the most effective, so he deserves the ball and to be placed in more scoring opportunities.

Honestly, I think it’s time that Mitchell took over as full-time point guard since, as KSL’s Andy Larsen pointed out in the tweet above, he seems to have developed the court vision and decision-making to do just that. That would be a quick and easy step to ensuring that his usage was high, that he had the ball in his hands more often and that he was in a situation to generate more offense via scoring or passing.

And on more time, just in case I wasn’t clear with this key – GIVE THE BALL TO DONOVAN MITCHELL!

Key #2  – Capitalize on turnovers

The last time the Utah Jazz and Miami Heat faced off, make no mistake about it, it was an ugly game. Both teams shot under 40 percent from the field (the offensively-challenged Jazz shot just 33.8 percent) as the game went back and forth in a sort of defensive slug-fest. The game was tied heading into the final period, but the Heat used a 27-17 fourth quarter effort to win a low-scoring 84-74 game.

The 74-point output was at one point viewed by Jazz fans as a low point of the season. If only that were the case…

Utah’s inability to put up points in that contest was even more frustrating considering that the Miami Heat turned the ball over 20 times. Even so, the Jazz struggled to generate much easy offense at all as those 20 giveaways produced just 15 points.

And, as it turns out, turning the ball over isn’t an issue that was unique to Miami in that game. They are in the bottom ten in the league in turnovers, coughing it up 15.2 times per contest. Therefore, the Jazz, who are fifth in the league in opponent turnovers, need to not only force the Heat into giving the ball up, but then go down the floor and convert on those easy opportunities.

Considering it’s been such an issue for the Jazz to score of late, doing so may be their only chance of topping the Heat, despite the fact that Miami hasn’t been much of a high-scoring squad themselves this season.

Key #3 – Stop Goran Dragic

Considering how lousy Ricky Rubio’s defense has been this season, I always get a little nervous when the Jazz are matched up against a quick and effective opposing point guard. Sure, Donovan Mitchell can help out on the defensive end, but typically Rubio draws the assignment and it’s been a pretty common sight to see him get burned.

And he’ll have his hands full today against Miami Heat point guard Goran Dragic, who has been on a tear of late. In the last three games, Dragic is averaging 22.7 points on 47.5 percent shooting from the field and an incredible 47.1 percent from three on nearly six attempts per game. If Dragic is allowed to get hot and strokes the three-ball as he has of late, the Jazz will stand little to no chance of coming out on top.

https://twitter.com/MiamiHEAT/status/948928277195845632

Therefore, it will be critical that Utah steps up and holds him in check. They did no such thing in their recent contest against the Nuggets which saw starting point guard Jamal Murray go off for 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the field and 6-of-7 from deep. Likewise in the previous contest against the New Orleans Pelicans, Jrue Holiday, who clocked several of his minutes at the point, went 10-of-16 for 24 points.

In other words, opposing point guards have simply had their way with Utah of late and if Dragic is allowed to match that, the Jazz will likely fall once again.

Prediction – Heat 98, Jazz 93

It’s not very often that I do this, but I’m actually going to change my prediction from earlier in the week and rather than pin Utah to shake their road woes and get a win, I’m going to pick the Heat as narrow winners in yet another relatively low-scoring bout. As sad as it is to say it, the Jazz have looked downright bad of late and I don’t see them fixing their issues, particularly that of playing with energy on the road, against a tough Heat team.

Each of the keys I’ve mentioned is critical in order for Utah to win, but particularly the second two don’t feel likely to happen to me. If the Jazz repeat their performance in Denver of ignoring my first key and failing to give the ball to Mitchell, it’s only going to hurt their case more. With so much going wrong of late and few solutions in sight, I’ll be almost shocked if Utah comes away with the win today.

Next: Utah Jazz: Eight potential trade targets (and how realistic they truly are)

This season is starting to look pretty discouraging for the Utah Jazz and with each loss that drops them further and further below .500, their chances of reaching the postseason appear more and more bleak. I keep hoping that they’ll turn things around and perhaps today’s contest against the Miami Heat will be that turning point, but based on how they’ve looked so far in a winless 2018, I’m definitely not counting on it.

The Jazz and Heat will tip-off at 1:30 PM MT today in a rare afternoon match-up.