Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets: Keys to getting back on track

The Utah Jazz, who have struggled mightily on the road, will have their work cut out for them as they face the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center tonight.

Last week the Utah Jazz earned a big home win over the San Antonio Spurs in one of those outings that made fans think that perhaps the Jazz were getting things put back together again and priming themselves for a big run. Unfortunately, when Oklahoma City came to town two days later, the Jazz were back to their struggling ways and were easily defeated.

Sure, OKC has been red hot of late as they appear to be righting a lot of their earlier wrongs whereas the Spurs are definitely struggling with some injury issues. Nevertheless, that doesn’t change the fact that the Jazz looked like two completely different teams in those two contests. And Utah’s latest loss to OKC marked their eighth loss in the last ten games which has them four games below .500 at 15-19.

Therefore, tonight’s road contest against the Denver Nuggets is going to be a crucial one for the Jazz to get back on track. Especially considering that their next two contests are against the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, it’ll be vital that they don’t fall yet another game below .500 after taking on the Denver Nuggets this evening.

Unfortunately, beating Denver will not be an easy task. The Nuggets have been playing quite well of late and are coming off a statement win over the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Not only that, but they’re also 11-3 within the friendly confines of the Pepsi Center which has also been a hostile environment for visiting foes. Especially considering that the Jazz are just 3-13 on the road, that’s not exactly a promising sign.

But the Jazz have handled Denver quite well in both contests so far this year, including a 106-77 blowout win in their previous meeting, so if Utah can continue to match up well against the Nugs, they may very well be able to come away with yet another victory. Let’s see what it will take for the Jazz to do just that.

Key #1 – Play with confidence

As I just mentioned, the Jazz own a 2-0 regular season series lead over the Denver Nuggets and were able to shut them down with relative ease in the latest meeting. Therefore, even though this bout is set to take place in Denver, the Jazz have to view this opponent in the exact same way – as extremely beatable.

The Nuggets have some solid young talent, but nobody that figures to completely overwhelm any one Jazz player that they’ll be matched up against. Yes, Nikola Jokic will be harder to stop without Rudy Gobert available, but Derrick Favors and the Jazz did just that in the previous meeting.

And although road games have been an absolute issue for Utah, if they want to have any hope of qualifying for the playoffs, they’ll have to stop that trend sooner rather than later. A .188 win percentage in away games simply isn’t going to be enough to get the job done, so Utah needs to believe that they can do better than that and start executing away from Vivint Smart Home Arena right away.

An element of their road woes has been getting off to slow starts and doing so against a formidable Denver team would be equivalent to a death wish. They’re capable of scoring in bunches and capitalize very well on momentum, so Utah needs to come in focused, energized and confident from the onset.

If they’re able to set that tone from the very beginning and maintain it all game long, they may very well take the first step to reversing their dismal play on the road that they’ve exhibited so far this season.

Key #2 – Win the battle of the boards

The Denver Nuggets have been an exceptional rebounding team this year as they pull down 45.1 per game, good for sixth in the league. They also boast the NBA’s second best rebound percentage at 52.5 percent. However, in the last contest, the Jazz managed to outmatch the Nuggets on the boards by a count of 43-42. That wasn’t a large margin by any means, but against an elite rebounding squad like the Nuggets, it was enough to translate into a win.

Therefore, if the Jazz hope to repeat that result, it’s likely that they’ll need to do the same once again tonight. Denver plays with a lot of energy at home which helps them gobble up several rebounds leading to extra possessions and second chance points, so Utah will need to nip that in the bud if they hope to keep pace with a talented Nuggets squad.

Rebounding hasn’t been a strength whatsoever for Utah so far this season as they’re 25th in the league in rebound percentage and 26th in rebounds per game, so turning it around in this area won’t be easy, but remains vital nonetheless. Especially with Rudy Gobert out of commission, the Jazz will need to take a rebound by committee approach if they are to win the battle of the boards.

Key #3 – Slow Trey Lyles

I know, Jazz fans, this one sounds absolutely crazy. But believe it or not, Trey Lyles has played extremely well for the Nuggets of late, particularly in the absence of Paul Millsap. In his last eight games, Lyles is averaging 16 points on 57.8 percent shooting from the field and 55.6 percent from deep on 4.5 attempts per game, while also chipping in six rebounds per contest.

Especially considering how he played during his time as a Jazzman, those numbers seem very much less than sustainable, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been on a tear lately. And after two disappointing performances against his old team to start out the season, you can bet that he’ll be looking to earn his revenge tonight.

Therefore, when he’s on the floor sparking Denver’s second unit, the Jazz will absolutely need to hold him in check. He’s shown flashes of brilliance as a versatile and effective offensive player during his time with the Nuggets, so the Jazz need to be prepared for him to continue to do so. I don’t think any Jazz fan would argue with the sentiment that Utah clearly won the recent trade with Denver by netting Donovan Mitchell, but that doesn’t change the fact that Lyles has looked much-improved so far on his new team.

So while Lyles isn’t the Nuggets’ best player by any stretch of the imagination, he could be considered their hottest and he’ll almost certainly be out with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove as he takes on his former team that traded him away. That’s a dangerous combo that the Jazz will need to stop in order to avoid an unfortunate outcome.

Prediction – Nuggets 112, Jazz 108

This is a game that I absolutely think the Jazz can win. They’ve played extremely well against Denver this season, they’re well-rested and I think they know how important this contest will be if they’re to close out December on a somewhat positive note.

Nevertheless, Utah’s 3-13 road record compared to Denver’s 11-3 home record is the back-breaker for me. The Jazz haven’t been able to play consistently at all away from home and in one of the toughest environments in the NBA, I doubt they’ll be able to reverse that trend now.

Despite Utah’s recent struggles, I truly believe they’re a more talented team than Denver. However, in terms of their energy and cohesion whey playing away from Vivint Smart Home Arena, they’ve looked pretty bad. And because of that, I believe that the Nuggets will pull away with a narrow win in this contest.

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The Jazz tip-off tonight against the Nuggets at 7:00 PM, then will be on the road once again tomorrow night to take on the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena.