Utah Jazz: Sorting fact from fiction 10 games into the season

Ricky Rubio will lead the Utah Jazz in Scoring

Throughout his six-year NBA career, Ricky Rubio had never averaged more than 11.1 points per game in a season. Through 10 games this season, he is leading the Jazz in scoring at 16.3 points per game.

Rubio has never been given this type of freedom in an offense before, as his scoring uptick is largely due to volume. He is continuing to shoot roughly his career percentages, but he is taking close to three additional shots per game, and one more free throw per game. He is not shooting the 3-point shot extremely well, but he is taking them with more confidence than ever before.

The main question is can that volume last, and I actually thinks the answer is yes. However, I don’t think he remains the leading scorer on this team.

I expect Rubio’s scoring to dip a bit as the season goes on, but he should finish around 14-16 points per game, which would be a new career high.  One of the main reasons his scoring should dip, is as others emerge.

There are four players on this Jazz team that could finish above Rubio as the leading scorer by seasons end; Rodney Hood, Donovan Mitchell, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. The two players most likely to eclipse Rubio, are Hood and Mitchell.

Hood has been a frustrating player for many Jazz fans. He is oft injured, and struggles with consistency.  I touched on this earlier, but he has two games scoring 0-9 points, two games scoring 10-19 points, and three games scoring 20-plus points. When Gordon Hayward was first asked to be the lead dog, he struggled with consistency as well. I am still a believer in Hood’s ability to score the basketball, and by seasons end, it would not surprise me if he looked more comfortable as the lead man and finishes with an 18 PPG average.

Mitchell is the other primary candidate. After a slow start to his career, he has really come on strong. Coming off the bench, he has been given the green light to be our go-to scorer.  Which is evident by his 13 field goal attempts per game.

I don’t know if it is a good this or a bad thing that the Jazz have so many potential players that could lead them in scoring. It does make it harder for teams to game plan against them, because they can’t key in on any one player. For most teams however, it is beneficial to have an established hierarchy on the offensive side of the ball.

I don’t expect Ricky Rubio to continue to be at the top of that hierarchy. He is a pass-first point guard, and as other players start to step up, he should scoring should drop off a bit.

Prediction: Fiction