Are the Utah Jazz Headed for an Offseason Shakeup?

Gordon Hayward, George Hill and Joe Ingles all become free agents this summer. Will re-signing them force the Jazz to abandon other role players?

The Utah Jazz have been saving cap space for a long time now. Ever since July 2013 when they took on Golden State’s salary dump of Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins and Brandon Rush, the Jazz have had enough cap space to be big spenders in free agency, and have even struggled at times to meet the minimum salary cap required by the NBA.

Now things are different. The NBA signed a huge TV contract therefore creating a spike in the salary cap which experts predict will top out at $114 million in the 2020-21 season. Players are getting paid now more than ever, as evidenced by Evan Turner and Timofey Mozgov’s contracts signed last summer.

What used to be considered max money is now a bargain for players like Gordon Hayward and Paul George. So basically what I’m trying to say is every team has cap space now. And that puts the Jazz in a financial pinch.

Last summer’s free agent frenzy proved it is a good time to be an NBA player. Chandler Parsons was signed for four years, $94 million despite undergoing major surgeries on his knee and missing plenty of games. Mike Conley was handed out the most lucrative contract in league history despite not being a franchise centerpiece.

Kent Bazemore signed with the Hawks for four years, $70 million dollars after one good season in a contract year. Just 68 games as a starter earned him a bigger contract than Gordon Hayward. DeMar DeRozan became the league’s third highest paid player after an underwhelming postseason performance that saw him shoot just 19 percent from the three and post negatives in Offensive Win Shares, Offensive and Defensive Box Plus-Minus, Box Plus-Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player.

Players in general are getting paid (and overpaid) now more than ever, and while it’s a good problem to have players maximizing their potential, no NBA team can afford to keep every diamond in the rough.

Take a look at Shelvin Mack and Jeff Withey. Prior to landing with the Jazz, they were third string players on the Hawks and Pelicans that were out of the rotation and falling out of the league. They came to Utah and performed well in their role, and now we know they can contribute on NBA teams.

As individual players it is in their best interest to cash in on the salary cap spike while they still can, and that may mean their days with the Jazz are numbered. DJ Augustin received a four year, $29 million deal with the Magic last summer after a solid 2015-16 campaign that saw him average 14.3 points, 6.1 assists and 2.9 rebounds per 36 minutes.

For perspective, Shelvin Mack posted 15.2 points, 6.4 assists, 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes in 2015-16, and until recently was beating out Dante Exum for the Jazz’s backup point guard spot.

Jeff Withey did an admirable job filling in for the injured Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors last season, staying ready whenever Quin Snyder called his number. Per 36 minutes he scored 11.9 points, grabbed 9.5 boards, and rejected 2.9 shots, serving as a reliable rim protector when the Jazz were plagued with injuries.

And last summer Cole Aldrich, a seldomly used center by the Clippers with a similar stat line and game to Withey’s, received a three year, $22 million contract with the Timberwolves.

The Jazz already have nearly $74 million committed to the 2017-18 season alone, which only leaves about $28 million to get to the salary cap and about $39.5 million to the luxury tax threshold.

With Gordon Hayward and George Hill expected to command over $50 million per year (and not to mention Joe Ingles‘ next contract), the Jazz need to find a way to keep them locked up long term and still have enough money to work with Rodney Hood, Dante Exum, and Trey Lyles‘ expiring rookie deals.

Allowing only Mack and Withey to walk won’t cut it, the Jazz need even more space. The next contracts to go would be Boris Diaw and Alec Burks and unloading those contracts would free up an extra $18 million.

While it would be sad to see these two fan favorites go, it would potentially allow the Jazz to keep Hill, Hayward, and Ingles long term. Barring an unexpected breakout from Burks, I think it would be worth sacrificing two average players to keep Hill/Hayward/Ingles.

Diaw’s contract has a clause that says if the Jazz waive him by July 15th they won’t have to pay him his $7.5 million for next season. That works out pretty conveniently in case the Jazz can’t find a taker for Diaw on the trade market.

As for clearing Alec Burks’ salary, my colleague Jared Woodcox summed up my thoughts in his article last November:

"“Nevertheless, if he isn’t performing well or is injured, even if the Jazz had to do a salary dump type of move, it would be worth it to trade him in order to keep the other more important and consistent members of this Jazz team together. And if Burks is playing well, I still think that the others have proven to be more consistent and valuable and Utah should take advantage of the trade value he builds if they can’t afford to keep him.” – Jared Woodcox, The J Notes"

So with renouncing the rights to Jeff Withey, Shelvin Mack, and unloading Diaw and Burks, the Jazz still only have $57.8 million to hand out to Hill/Hayward/Ingles before hitting the luxury tax. Is that the best they can do with Exum, Hood, and Lyles’ pending free agency?

Dennis Lindsey could technically wheel and deal for younger players further back in their rookie contracts, but I think that would be tinkering too much with the beautiful roster depth they’ve already built. There were rumblings of a Derrick Favors trade coming soon, but I believe getting a healthy, 100 percent Derrick will only help a Jazz team already on pace for 50-plus wins. Adam Fromal had this to say in pegging D-Favs as the biggest X-Factor for the Utah Jazz:

"“The Utah Jazz have persevered, to the point that they remain in contention for home-court advantage during the playoffs’ opening round. But just imagine what might happen if their fringe All-Star candidate is able to join forces with George Hill, Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert while operating at full strength.” – Adam Fromal, Bleacher Report"

Balancing all the salaries and avoiding the luxury tax while still being able to field a contending team is no easy task, which is why I’m glad that Dennis Lindsey is the GM and not me. While it’s good that the Jazz run two or three deep at every position, that luxury could very well come to an end next season.

Therefore, The core players must prove that they can carry the load and prove it was worth paying the hefty price to keep them locked up in Utah. Other NBA teams will be coming for the Jazz’s free agents, as four current Utah Jazz players were frequently brought up by Dan FaVale as targets for other team’s summer shopping list.

In other words, as soon as the Jazz’s season is over, be ready to buckle down for an eventful offseason.

*(Unless otherwise noted, all stats from basketball-reference.com and basketballinsiders.com)