Utah Jazz Week Twenty Outlook, Predictions

3/8 Utah at Houston

6:00 pm MT – Root Sports/League Pass

Opponent record: 44-19

Season series: Tied 1-1

Utah’s battles against Houston last season were among the most thrilling of the 2015-16 campaign. Yet despite tying the regular season series, it was ultimately Houston who ousted the Jazz by just one game to nab the final playoff spot in the West.

This season, both teams have logged convincing wins over the other and Wednesday’s contest will be the final match-up, clearly defining the winner of that game as also the victor of the regular season series. Although catching third place Houston is likely out of reach for the Jazz, this is still an extremely important game.

Given that Utah has losing records against each of the teams below them in the standings battling for the fourth seed (0-2 against LA, 1-3 against Memphis, 1-2 against OKC), the Jazz need to prove that they can compete with the West’s elite by coming away with a confidence-building win over an elite Houston team.

Not to mention, depending on how things go down the stretch, the Jazz could very well fall to the sixth seed and take on the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. Therefore, it would be great for Utah to gain the psychological edge in that match-up by grabbing a second win and taking the regular season series.

That obviously won’t be an easy task, though, as the Rockets are currently second in the league in points and assists and boast a legitimate MVP candidate in James Harden who has been incredible this season. His mind-blowing averages of 28.8 points and 11.3 assists per game have been the driving force behind one of the NBA’s most powerful and high-octane offenses.

Not only are the Rockets putting up points and assists with ease, but they currently boast the second most efficient offense (trailing only the Golden State Warriors) and are better defensively than many people presume, ranking in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency, ahead of the likes of the Boston Celtics, LA Clippers, Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers.

So to make a long story short, this is a good Rockets team that, despite perhaps being in a tier slightly below the Warriors and Spurs, certainly isn’t far from legitimate title contention.

Nevertheless, while Utah will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them against such a staunch opponent, I like the way they match-up against Houston. Utah’s ability to slow down the game and force the Rockets to grind on defense helps the Jazz gain a bit of an edge. As long as Utah can contain James Harden and keep Houston in check on the perimeter, they should have a good chance of arising victorious.

With that being the case, while I’m a bit hesitant to pick a Jazz team that has struggled against formidable playoff opponents this season, I’m going to go out on a limb and pin Utah as winners by a narrow margin in a closely-contested battle against the Rockets.

My Prediction: Jazz Win

Final Score: Utah 97, Houston 94